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"I don't think in the last two or three hundred years we've faced such a concatenation
of  problems all at the same time.... If we are to solve the issues that are ahead of us,

we are going to need to think in completely different ways."

  Paddy Ashdown, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina 2002 - 2006



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Former Shell Scientist M. King Hubbert Speaks On Peak Oil in 1976
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What Happened To The $11 Oil?

"The chairman of Royal Dutch/Shell, Mark Moody-Stuart, three months ago unveiled a five-year plan that assumed a price of $14 a barrel. He has since publicly mused about oil at $11. Sir John Browne, chief executive of BP-Amoco, is now working on a similar assumption. Consumers everywhere will rejoice at the prospect of cheap, plentiful oil for the foreseeable future. Policymakers who remember the pain of responding to oil shocks in 1973 and in 1979-80 will also be pleased."
The next shock?
Economist, 4 March 1999

".... today's $11-a-barrel price [is].... [the] lowest inflation-adjusted oil prices of the past half-century ...   Even if consumption rises dramatically over time, most analysts believe prices should remain in check because of advanced technology and because OPEC nations need to sell as much as they can to maintain their incomes..... Low oil prices are excellent news, of course, for big energy consumers. A sustained $10-per-barrel drop in the price of oil cuts about 0.7 points from the annual U.S. inflation rate over five years and adds about 0.3 points to the U.S. economy's growth.... [I]f you're still operating under the assumption that the earth's petroleum--or at least the cheap stuff--is about to run out, you're not going to thrive in the new oil era. Technology is making it possible to find, produce, and refine oil so efficiently that its supply, at least for practical purposes, is basically unlimited."
Businessweek, 14 December 1999


"Oil and gas companies need to increase annual investment by 20 per cent or face a global supply crunch from 2025, a leading consultancy has warned. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie found that the current industry recovery has been more gradual than in previous cycles, with a dearth of funds being pumped into new production. This could lead to a supply gap from the middle of next decade, pushing prices upward. It could also put increased pressure on companies’ growth targets, triggering increased merger and acquisition activity in the coming years. “The recovery in investment has been slower and shallower than other upturns,” said Malcolm Dickson, head of European upstream research at Wood Mackenzie. “We need to see investment to meet demand for oil and gas, which we see being robust in the long term, and to meet company growth targets.” The warning comes as the industry cautiously emerges from a downturn that saw the price of crude collapse by 75 per cent between mid-2014 and early 2016, to below $30 a barrel at its lowest point. While prices have now seen a resurgence, reaching more than $80 a barrel in recent weeks, producers remain wary of investing capital into new projects. Development spending rose 2 per cent in 2017 and is expected to rise 5 per cent this year. Wood Mackenzie predicts this will increase from a low of $460bn in 2016 to around $500bn in the early-2020s — well below the peak of $750bn in 2014. But it would need to hit annual levels of around $600bn to meet demand for oil and gas over the coming decade, according to the consultancy."
Wood Mackenzie warns of oil and gas supply crunch
Financial Times, 24 October 2018


"We're running out of new oil. Explorers in 2017 discovered the least amount of oil since at least the 1940s, according to Rystad Energy, an oil and gas consultancy. It estimated that less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent were found this year through Thursday. Some energy companies will announce more discoveries next year in their 2017 annual reports, but Rystad expects this to increase the 2017 total by 10% at most. New discoveries have fallen every year since 2014, when oversupply triggered an oil crash that cut its price by more than half. The plunge forced many upstream oil producers to reduce their spending, and helps explain why discoveries are also down. But that's not the only reason: explorers are finding less oil resources per field, according to Rystad. An average offshore discovery held about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2017, down from 150 million boe in 2012. The last time oil and gas companies added to their reserves by as much as they were producing was in 2006, when the so-called reserve replacement ratio reached 100%. It was down to 50% in 2012, and 11% in 2017. This doesn't mean we're about to run out of crude oil. Major producers including the US have emergency reserves. Moreover, the industry's headache for the past few years has been too much oil. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of big producers, has agreed to deal with the oversupply problem by cutting output until the end of 2018. Also, there are usually a few years in between when an oil firm makes a large discovery and when it's ready for production. That means we can count on recent discoveries to keep our engines running for some time. And there were some major discoveries this year, like the 1 billion barrels found off the coast of Mexico by Premier Oil, Talos Energy, and Sierra Oil & Gas. But if oil discoveries continue trending down, we could be talking seriously about oil shortages in about a decade from now, Rystad estimates.  "While there have been some notable successes this year, we have to face the fact that the low discovered volumes on global level represent a serious threat to the supply levels some ten years down the road," said Sonia Mladá Passos, a senior analyst at Rystad, in a press release."
Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking
Business Insider, 23 December 2017


"The Permian Basin in West Texas may be the second biggest field in the world after Ghawar in Saudi Arabia,” he said. Zhu Min, the deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, said US shale has entirely changed the balance of power in the global oil market and there is little Opec can do about it. “Shale has become the swing producer. Opec has clearly lost its monopoly power and can only set a bottom for prices. As soon as the price rises, shale will come back on and push it down again,” he said. The question is whether even US shale can ever be big enough to compensate for the coming shortage of oil as global investment collapses. “There has been a $1.8 trillion reduction in spending planned for 2015 to 2020 compared to what was expected in 2014,” said Mr Yergin. Yet oil demand is still growing briskly. The world economy will need 7m b/d more by 2020. Natural depletion on existing fields implies a loss of another 13m b/d by then. Adding to the witches’ brew, global spare capacity is at wafer-thin levels - perhaps as low 1.5m b/d - as the Saudis, Russians, and others, produce at full tilt. 'If there is any shock the market will turn on a dime,' he said. The oil market will certainly feel entirely different before the end of this decade. The warnings were widely echoed in Davos by luminaries of the energy industry. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said the suspension of new projects is setting the stage for a powerful spike in prices. Investment fell 20pc last year worldwide, and is expected to fall a further 16pc this year. “This is unprecedented: we have never seen two years in a row of falling investment. Don’t be misled, anybody who thinks low oil prices are the ‘new normal’ is going to be surprised,” he said. Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria oil minister and the outgoing chief of Opec, said the ground is being set for wild volatility. “The bottom line is that production no longer makes any sense for many, and at this point we’re going to see a lot of barrels leave the market. Ultimately, prices will shoot back up in a topsy-turvey movement,” he said...Saudi Arabia has made it clear that there can be no Opec deal to cut output and stabilize prices until the Russians are on board, and that is very difficult since Russian companies are listed and supposedly answerable to shareholders."
Saudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’
Telegraph, 24 January 2016


"Ten years ago you couldn’t avoid it if you tried. Books by James Howard Kunstler, Richard Heinberg, Kenneth Deffeyes, and others were warning that worldwide oil production would inevitably peak soon, based on analysis similar to that of celebrated geologist M. King Hubbert, who predicted, in 1956, that U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. Darn if he wasn’t right. With the presumed world peak in oil production, national economies hooked on injecting oil straight into their largest arteries then began to decline. Peak oil doesn’t mean oil would disappear – half of it would still be left – just that less of it would be produced each year going forward, and shell-shocked economies would fall into a permanent state of recession as consumers battled, Mad Max-like, for every last barrel. Except “events never play out the way one expects,” said James Murray, a speaker at a session entitled “Is Peak Oil Dead and What Does It Mean for Climate Change?” at the AGU Fall Meeting in the City by the Bay. Technology came to the rescue, in the forms of fracking and three-dimensional directional drilling. U.S. oil production soared upward 54 percent in just five years, from 3.3 billion barrels in 2009 to 5.1 billion barrels in 2014. Although world oil production increased by only 8.5 percent in that time, it was enough to keep it from peaking. So is peak oil now an outdated concept, or does it still lie in our future? The latter, most experts at the AGU meeting were saying, while admitting they hadn’t foreseen the technological revolution that has allowed U.S. oil and gas production to soar over the past decade. Those resources are finite, and the cost of extracting them increases once the low-hanging fruit are picked. Oil has dropped to about $35 per barrel because oil producers, hungry for unconventional oil from tar sands and gas from shale, overproduced. Yet they’re still not making money, said James Murray from the University of Washington. Shale oil – what the industry calls “tight shale” – “is profitable for drillers, hotels and restaurants, but not for investors,” he said. Cash flow in this sector was $10 billion in the red in 2014, even as yet more money is plowed into it from, Murray thinks, investors desperate for yields as the Federal Reserve keeps inerest rates extremely low. Murray said the break-even price for conventional oil is $20 per barrel, but $75 per barrel for tight oil. So oil companies are drawing back: U.S. oil production seems to have peaked in July 2015, and even the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas and the Bakken field in North Dakota are cutting back. “The world may be close to peak oil production,” Murray concluded....David Hughes, president of Global Sustainability Research, Inc. in Calgary, pointed out that “the remaining reserves [of fossil fuels] are large, but of lower quality and require more energy to produce.” He estimated that more than 90 percent of what are known in the field as 'unconventional sources' – shale gas and oil and tar sands oil – 'are not recoverable.'"
Whatever became of 'peak oil'? Still to come?
Yale Climate Connections, 18 December 2015


"It is now generally accepted by those actually studying the issue that production of 'conventional oil,' which is what the early 'peakists' were talking about 10 or 15 years ago, really did stop growing back in about 2005-2008. Since then official 'oil' production numbers have continued to climb slowly, but included in the 'official' numbers as put out by the US and international agencies is not all your grandfather’s oil. Instead the compilers of our oil statistics have learned to lump all sorts of liquid hydrocarbons of varying utility together and tell us that oil in the form of 'all liquids' continues to grow. Now these hydrocarbons such as natural gas liquids, biofuels, tar sands, and shale oil have uses, but they either cost considerably more to produce than conventional oil, or do not have the same energy content as conventional oil. In at least one case, 'refinery gains' which are sort of like whipping up a pint of cream into gallons of whipped cream, have no additional energy in their expanded state at all. They simply fill more barrels and let us pretend we have more energy to use than we actually do. While the financial press continues to chatter endlessly about the technological breakthroughs that have brought us millions of barrels of new shale oil, sadly they have the basics of the story wrong. It is the high prices that 'oil' has been selling for in the last ten years, not the decades-old fracking technology that has allowed very expensive shale oil to be produced that is new. Even with the recent $40 per barrel price decline, oil is still selling for four times what it was going for 12 or 13 years ago. It is the surge in prices to circa $100 a barrel has allowed very expensive oil such as that from fracked shale wells, the Canadian tar sands, and deep offshore oil wells to be produced; now with oil selling for closer to $70 a barrel the question is how long oil that is no longer economic to produce will keep being extracted. The other question is just how much of our oil supply is in danger of being mothballed until prices climb again as they surely will. The reason for the current fall in prices is still in debate. The 'oil' supply has continued to creep up in recent years, but starting last June the demand for $100+ oil was no longer there. While demand in the 'rich' OECD countries has been down since the 2008 oil price spike, this year it seems to be the slowing Chinese economy and its reduced demand for raw materials that has been behind the sinking demand. Many of the developing economies have been growing and using more oil each year due to growing trade with the Chinese. Someday conventional wisdom will conclude that oil at circa $100+ a barrel was simply too much to sustain high rates of economic growth and so the growth fell taking oil demand along with it. "
The Peak Oil Crisis
Falls Church News-Press, 31 December 2014


"The critical measure here is EROEI (the Energy Return On Energy Invested). The days of 100:1 energy returns are long gone. The ratio for new oil projects has declined from 30:1 to barely 10:1 since the 1970s. For global energy overall, the EROEI has declined from about 37:1 in 1990 to less than 14:1 now. The flip-side of EROEI is the real cost of energy. The cost ratio at an EROEI of 37:1 in 1990 was 2.6 per cent, but this has risen to 6.8 per cent today. The global EROEI may fall to 10:1 by 2020, increasing the energy cost 'levy' on the economy to 9 per cent. In blithe ignorance of this increasing levy, we have continued to grow the claims value of the financial system on the assumption of perpetual growth. These 'excess claims' show up as unsustainable debt, undeliverable welfare commitments, and unrealisable expectations for returns on investment. My calculations suggest that the system now owes $90 trillion (£55 trillion) more than it can deliver. For individuals, this is being manifested in the escalating real costs of fuel, power, food, water and physical infrastructure. Globally, it is visible in 'energy sprawl', as the energy-delivering infrastructure expands (both in scale and in cost) in response to the weakening in efficiency resulting from a deteriorating EROEI. As well as crimping disposable incomes and destroying returns on investment, this process is curbing our ability to invest in other things. The essential point is that the economy is not a monetary system governed by the theoretical 'laws' of economics, but an energy dynamic determined by the all-too-real laws of thermodynamics. Once we understand this, the squeeze on household prosperity becomes far less of a mystery."
Tim Morgan - The global economy sinks under its debts as the real cost of energy rises
City.AM, 24 October 2013


"The most common misconception about peak oil is that it means the world is running out of oil. Many articles that seek to debunk the notion of peak oil start with that premise, and then they proceed to tear down that straw man. Peak oil is about flow rates, and the overall flow rate will begin to decline while there is still a lot of oil left in the ground. Another misconception is that peak oil beliefs are homogeneous. The beliefs among people who are concerned about the impacts of peak oil cover a wide span. There are those who believe that a peak is imminent, to be followed by a catastrophic decline....... A more mainstream peak oil position is that the real threat is much higher oil prices, leading to stagnant economies.... The points of contention are the timing, the steepness of the decline, the impact on the global economy and the ability of other energy sources to fill the supply gap. Some believe we will smoothly transition to alternatives, and some people believe peak oil will be catastrophic."
Peak Oil: Misconceptions and Realities
Investing Daily, 26 November 2012


"...we are entering an era of scarce resources. Apart from the atomic bomb, this is the most dangerous development in two centuries..... New powers such as China and India are rising, not yet risen, mixing emphasis on their 'developing' status with assertiveness."
David Miliband, British Foreign Secretary, 2007-10
'It was not bin Laden who defined this decade'
London Times, 7 September 2011, Print Edition, P28


"Bankers and the financial sector may have displaced energy from the front pages of the newspapers right now, but Energy Security remains at the top of the global political and economic agenda....The need to balance energy security, jobs and economic development while addressing the problem of climate change all contributed to the challenge politicians faced in Copenhagen. And that challenge means that energy security will dominate politics and policy for the next 12 months and considerably beyond.... Reliable and affordable supplies of hydrocarbon energy were taken for granted through much of the 20th century and laid the foundation for the world’s extraordinary economic progress. When concerns arose, it tended to be at times of war or turbulence, notably in the Middle East, or, closer to home, with industrial action. What’s different now is that energy security has become a defining issue for the 21st century, as one element in a complex energy challenge with strategic, economic and environmental dimensions.... Opening access to a range of potential operators encourages the most efficient solutions, and often involves partnerships that provide new combinations of skills. Iraq is a very good example. BP is teaming up there with CNPC of China and Iraq’s South Oil Company to drive a major investment programme that will nearly triple production from the super-giant Rumaila field. With this and the other agreements concluded with national and international oil companies in the last six months, Iraq has the potential to contribute 10mmb/d to global supplies in the next 10-15 years. That’s a big piece of the additional resource we need....The current debate about Copenhagen and sustainability add new urgency and importance to the broader discussion of energy security.  The challenge of creating a low-carbon economy is far from easy, requiring the wholesale re-engineering of the global economy over time."
Tony Hayard, Chief Executive of BP
The Challenge of Energy Security
Speech at London School of Economics, 4 February 2010


"The most important contributors to the world’s total oil production are the giant oil fields....The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base – giantfields –will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings.... By 2030 the production from fields currently on stream could have decreased by over 50% in agreement with IEA (2008) . The struggle to maintain production and compensate for the decline in existing production will become harder and harder. Our conclusion is that the world will face an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high but also increasing."
Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Energy Policy Volume 37, Issue 6, June 2009


"The global economy is tanking, U.S. forces remain tied up in Iraq, Afghanistan is on a downward spiral -- one might wonder why anyone would want to be U.S. president during these trying times. Recently, the nation's chief intelligence officer weighed in, painting an even more somber picture of a far more complicated world. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell looked beyond the immediate future, focusing on what his analysts are telling him about the challenges the world community is likely to face by 2025. It isn't pretty. Speaking to an annual conference of intelligence officials and contractors, McConnell said demographics, competition for natural resources and climate change will increase the potential for conflict. President-elect Barack Obama may get a glimpse of some of those challenges on Thursday. McConnell is expected to lead Obama's first top-secret intelligence briefing, according to U.S. officials familiar with the process. According to McConnell's outlook, economic and population growth will strain resources. 'Demand is projected to outstrip the easily available supplies over the next decade,' he said at the annual conference. The intelligence community's forecast indicates oil and gas supplies will continue to dwindle and production will be concentrated in unstable areas, he said. And there appears to be no relief at hand. McConnell said studies have shown that new energy technologies -- such as biofuels, clean coal and hydrogen -- generally take 25 years to become commercially viable and widespread."
New president faces increased risk of conflict, intel chief says
CNN, 5 November 2008


"If you speak to people in the industry, they will conceed that whatever my company may say publicly, we understand that we are facing decline in our own production and worldwide, we are not going to be able to produce more fuel liquids or crude oil in the near future... I was recently at a conference in New Mexico, sitting next to one of the recent CEOs of a major oil company and he, in response to a question from the audience, said 'of course I am a peakist, it is just a question of when it is coming' and I think that that is illustrative of once one is retired as a CEO, one is freer than one was in position to say I am a peakist. And what you hear privately from almost all people is we are coming to it.... I think that many of these politicians will ultimately find that the public blames them for its failure to warn them. Of course in a sense the public is responsible because it is the present public attitude to which politicians play up, and tell them what they want to hear but when the view of the world changes, what the public wanted to hear some time ago is no longer what they want to hear in the future."
James Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary
Interview with David Strahan, ASPO 6, September 2007


"The scarcity of energy supplies and the energy imbalance between nations is a threat to our prosperity and national security. As resources contract, oil-hungry economies will compete for dwindling supplies of hydrocarbons. Competition for fossil fuels will increase.... Energy resources have long been a major strategic concern: access to secure sources, control over supply lines: these are issues of national security.... The energy challenge is now more pressing than ever.... Global oil production is apparently nearing its peak.... current estimates seem to be converging on some point between 2010 and 2020.... [there] are five factors which are changing the energy landscape: rising demand; dwindling supply; greater concentration of resource in the hands of a few; limited spare capacity; and the environmental impacts of energy use.....This is not a problem that can wait ten years."
Sir David Manning, British Ambassador To The United States Of America
Speech at Stanford University, 13 March 2006


".... a series of crises in oil supply is likely over the coming decades. The first, related to the peak and decline of non-OPEC production, is practically upon us and underpins the currently high oil prices...... The imminent inability of non-OPEC production to meet incremental demand and its decline after 2010 precipitates the second crisis as OPEC’s diminishing spare capacity (even with Iraq’s production back to preinvasion levels) becomes less and less able to accommodate short-term fluctuations.....The third crisis, due to OPEC’s incremental supply being unable to meet incremental demand, follows in the first half of the next decade. This assumes that OPEC’s reserves are as published. .....These crises will have global economic and geopolitical significance: The oil price will be high and volatile, and demand growth will have to be curtailed..."
Oil Supply Challenges - 2: What Can OPEC Deliver?
Oil and Gas Journal, 7 March 2005

The Energy Challenge Of The Post 9/11 Period

"The U.S. needs energy — lots and lots of energy — and 37.1% of it is currently supplied by oil. As the population expands and the policy decisions and technological innovations needed to make the switch to green, renewable energy sources lag, thirst for the stuff is only going to grow. Critics have long lamented that when it comes to energy policy, 9/11 was an opportunity for the country to have an honest debate about the choices it needs to make if it's ever going to break its addiction to oil. 'We need to address the underlying issue,' says Lisa Margonelli, director of the New America Foundation's Energy Policy Initiative, 'and that's our dependence on oil.' Having a national conversation now — an adult one — is the only way forward."
The Far-Ranging Costs of the Mess in the Gulf
TIME, 6 May 2010



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"The number of greenfield oil and gas projects to get their final investment decision could rise threefold on 2018, Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad Energy has forecast. Most of these will be offshore projects, the author of the study, upstream analyst Readul Islam said. The number, which only covers conventional oil and gas deposits, could open up production reserves to the tune of 46 billion barrels of oil and gas, including around 14 billion barrels of oil equivalent in deepwater blocks, some 20 billion barrels in shallower waters, and the rest in onshore deposits, Islam said. The analyst noted “The only supply segment likely to shrink this year is the oil sands, whereas deepwater, offshore shelf and other conventional onshore developments are all poised to show substantial growth. From a geographical perspective, all regions are headed for robust growth except Europe and North America, still bearing in mind that shale plays are not included in these numbers.” The forecast includes a lot of projects whose final investment decision was delayed because of the 2014 oil price crash, indicating that oil and gas companies have now managed to bring their costs down enough to make these large-scale projects commercially viable. About a quarter of the projects expected to receive a FID this year are ones that have been delayed because of the 2014 slump in oil prices. Yet there is no certainty that all of these projects will receive their final go-ahead this year. A sharp fall in oil prices could once again put the brakes on many greenfield projects. However, others will go ahead, including a number of liquefied natural gas projects in Africa, Russia, and Australia. In oil, Saudi Arabia will account for about one-fifth of the total new reserves to be tapped this year with the expansion of three offshore projects: Marjan, Zuluf, and Berri."
New Oil, Gas Project Approvals To Triple This Year: Rystad, 22 February 2019

"The fall in UK electricity generation to its lowest level since 1994, as reported on the Carbon Brief website earlier this month, reflects a trend in the energy market that is too often ignored. The supply side of the energy business — what Opec produces each month and how much gas Russia exports to Europe — is only half the story. The changing pattern of demand is at least as important and poses a real challenge to companies and investors in a sector where returns are already constrained by competition and regulation. The decline in consumption is not limited to the UK or to electricity. Over the past decade, both total energy demand and electricity use have fallen across the developed world. Since 2010 demand has declined in 18 of the 30 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency. There are several different reasons for the decline in consumption. Technical advances have improved the efficiency of products ranging from washing machines and fridges to computer servers have been underpinned by regulatory changes such as the introduction of LED lighting. Economies have deindustrialised to differing degrees, while in some countries a proportion of the fall has been caused by low economic growth. Although analysts and policymakers frequently assert that electricity will lead the shift to a low-carbon economy, there is so far only limited evidence of a real change. Electricity has only marginally expanded its share of final energy consumption since 2000 despite the growth of computers, telecommunications and the proliferation of domestic appliances. A small number of electric cars and the rising use of electricity in other parts of the transport sector starting with the railways have not yet made a material difference. By 2017, electricity contributed less than 1 per cent of final energy consumption in the transport sector, according to the IEA. For the moment, and for the foreseeable future, there are two distinct markets — one consisting of appliances and light industry where electricity is the natural source of energy and a larger market made up of the transport sector, heavier industry and the provision of heat. In the overall market, electricity provides only 19 per cent of the energy consumed — the rest comes from the burning of hydrocarbons — coal, oil and natural gas. In the emerging markets, electricity demand continues to grow to meet basic energy needs. In the developed world, the fall in electricity demand may be more than temporary.As consumers upgrade equipment to ever more efficient models and as regulations force standards to rise, electricity consumption is likely to drop. A revolution in battery technology would in theory stimulate demand for electricity. But any growth in the use of batteries (and other forms of energy storage) will also serve to eliminate waste and the loss of electric power, which as of now can only be used as soon as it is produced. Smart meters and grids will also improve efficiency rather than increasing demand.The sector’s growth hopes continue to rest on converting sectors of the economy such as transport and industry from the use of hydrocarbons to reliance on electricity. The pace of change in those areas, however, is limited and complicated by the existence of entrenched capital stock, which would be costly to convert or write off."
Falling demand is the energy sector’s next challenge
Financial Times, 21 February 2019

"The war on single-use plastics could cut demand for oil faster than previously expected over the next two decades, BP has warned. The oil major predicted a peak in global oil demand for the first time last year, and in its latest outlook report warned that a crackdown on plastic waste, which is made from fossil fuels, could play a role in slowing oil demand. BP expects demand for oil to rise 0.3pc a year before plateauing in the 2030s. The “much slower” growth forecast is well below what BP predicted even two years ago. Last year, its central forecast scenario predicted the world’s appetite for crude would grow by 0.5pc a year through the next decades before peaking in the late 2030s. "
BP warns war on plastic will help cut global oil demand
Telegraph, 14 February 2019

"Renewable energy sources will be the world’s main source of power within two decades and are establishing a foothold in the global energy system faster than any fuel in history, according to BP. The UK-based oil company said wind, solar and other renewables will account for about 30% of the world’s electricity supplies by 2040, up from 25% in BP’s 2040 estimates last year, and about 10% today. In regions such as Europe, the figure will be as high as 50% by 2040. The speed of growth was without parallel, the company said in its annual energy outlook. While oil took almost 45 years to go from 1% of global energy to 10%, and gas took more than 50 years, renewables are expected to do so within 25 years in the report’s central scenario. In the event of a faster switch to a low carbon economy, that period comes down to just 15 years, which BP said would be “literally off the charts” relative to historical shifts. But the company, as in previous editions of its report, does not see oil going away any time soon. The outlook’s core scenario envisages that oil demand does not peak until the 2030s, though under its greener scenario that milestone could be reached between now and the early 2020s. Regardless, BP sees a “major role” for hydrocarbons until 2040, which it says will require substantial investment. It expects global demand for oil and gas to be 80-130 million barrels per day by then, up from around 100mb/d today. The company has ambitious plans to grow its oil and gas production 16% by 2025, according to figures compiled by the Norway-based consultants Rystad Energy. The report is gloomy on prospects for avoiding dangerous levels of global warming. The central scenario expects carbon emissions to grow 10% by 2040, as world energy demand grows by a third and fossil fuels continue to play a key role."
Renewable energy will be world's main power source by 2040, says BP
Guardian, 14 February 2019

"A wave energy technology is being developed that could help generate low-cost electricity for thousands of houses. The device costs less than conventional designs, has fewer moving parts, and is made of durable materials. It is designed to be incorporated into existing ocean energy systems and can convert wave power into electricity. Small scale experiments in an ocean simulator show that one full-size device could generate the equivalent of 500kW, enough electricity for about 100 homes. Engineers say that their design could be used in fleets of low-cost, easily maintained structures at sea within decades, to take advantage of powerful waves in Scottish waters. Engineers from the University of Edinburgh and from Italy developed their device – known as a Dielectric Elastomer Generator (DEG) – using flexible rubber membranes. It is designed to fit on top of a vertical tube which, when placed in the sea, partially fills with water that rises and falls with wave motion. As waves pass the tube, the water inside pushes trapped air above to inflate and deflate the generator on top of the device. As the membrane inflates, a voltage is generated. This increases as the membrane deflates, and electricity is produced. In a commercial device, this electricity would be transported to shore via underwater cables. A scaled-down version of the system was tested in the FloWave facility at the University of Edinburgh, a 25m diameter circular tank that can reproduce any combination of ocean waves and currents. The system could replace conventional designs, involving complex air turbines and expensive moving parts. The study, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, was carried out in collaboration with the Universities of Trento, Bologna and Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna Pisa in Italy."
Device could deliver wave energy to thousands
University of Edinburgh, 13 February 2019

"The EU appears to have left the door open for Gazprom’s controversial gas pipeline project to pour more Russian gas into Europe. The European Commission on Wednesday struck a provisional deal with the European Parliament and the EU’s 28 member states to tighten the rules on gas imports into the bloc. The new rules will govern all import pipelines, including Gazprom’s planned Nord Stream 2 project, to guard member states against unfair tariffs or anti-competitive practices. One of the key points rules out gas suppliers from owning the pipeline infrastructure transporting their gas into the EU."
EU leaves door open to Russian gas pipeline to Germany
Telegraph, 13 February 2019

"The oil crash came and went but the debt pile it left across the Gulf is still growing, leaving the region’s energy-dependent economies more vulnerable next time a crisis strikes. All but debt-free before crude prices nosedived in 2014, many Gulf governments tried to borrow their way through while making only cautious and halting efforts to cut spending and diversify their economies. Meanwhile, a Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has split the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council and complex regional dynamics mean it’s no longer a foregone conclusion that the strong will bail out the weak with no strings attached. If oil prices crash again, the pain could be greater than five years ago, raising the risk of a regional recession because governments would have to slash spending while markets would be more reluctant to lend, according to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud."
The Oil Crash Is Over, But Debt Is Still Piling Up in the Gulf
Bloomberg, 13 February 2019

"As of December 2018, Australia has been the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, relegating Qatar to second place, ahead of Malaysia in third position. But the United States is aiming to be among the top three by the end of this year. It has been massively adding liquefaction capacity to profit from enhanced global natural gas demand. The country is expected to add over 6 billion cubic feet of daily liquefaction capacity by 2021. That would come on top of the over 3 billion cubic feet per day stemming from the country's Sabine Pass and Cove Point facilities.... Norway's resources are depleting, and the Netherlands has already announced it will reduce gas supplies by two-thirds as of 2022 and halt them completely by 2030 because of unsafe extraction conditions. Should the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project go ahead as scheduled, Europe's dependence on Russia will no doubt increase, but relatively cheap gas supplies make the deal so enticing. The US administration, just like Eastern European nations, have vociferously advised against the Nord Stream project, and Washington has pushed its very own solution to the conflict — making more EU nations, and above all Germany, buy LNG from the US.... According to the US Energy Information Administration, imports of LNG to the EU28 averaged 5.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2017, but remained below their peak in 2011. It states that "utilization of import facilities in the bloc has declined from about 50 percent to between 20-25 percent in recent years as expansions in regasification capacity far exceeded demand for LNG imports." Those importing LNG in the EU have seen it as a useful diversification of their energy sources. That certainly makes sense, given that the countries in question have the necessary infrastructure in place to receive LNG from tankers. In the case of Germany, including direct LNG deliveries in its energy mix may also be seen by policymakers as a move toward more diversification, but it wouldn't really need it despite the country phasing out both nuclear and coal power, and it wouldn't need need LNG from the United States. Unlike EU nations such as Belgium and the Netherlands, Germany doesn't have its own terminal to import liquefied natural gas directly. But at a German-US conference on energy security in Berlin on Tuesday, German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier strongly supported the construction of at least two such terminals in northern Germany. Brunsbüttel, Stade or Wilhelmshaven were mentioned as likely locations."
Liquefied natural gas: US hype and German obedience?
Deutsche Welle, 12 February 2019

"The US has welcomed an announcement by Germany that it will build at least two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, a move that could pave the way for American exports to one of Europe’s largest energy markets. The announcement could also help to address US concerns over Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline being built to link Russia to Germany, which Washington worries will increase Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports. In an interview with the Financial Times, Dan Brouillette, the US deputy energy secretary, said he was “very excited” at the German move on terminals, describing it as “potentially a great opportunity for US LNG”. “We remain concerned by Germany’s increasing reliance on Russia for its gas, so anything it does to improve diversity is a good step,” he told the FT. But he insisted that the US was still “not going to drop [its] objections” to Nord Stream 2.... However, experts have said that even if the German terminals are constructed, demand for US LNG will be low because it is considerably more expensive than Russian pipeline gas. LNG is cooled to approximately minus 160 degrees Celsius and then shipped to market on tankers. In the interview, Mr Brouillette said the price of US LNG would fall as more and more export terminals are built and domestic gas production continues to increase. He said four new terminals are “under active consideration by the regulator” and, if approved and built, would bring the total number of US export facilities to 10. As new terminals come on line, “you’ll begin to see US LNG prices go down — because of competition between players who own those facilities”, he said. Mr Brouillette also welcomed a decision by EU countries last Friday to toughen their rules on Nord Stream 2. Ambassadors to the bloc agreed that the project must meet the four EU energy rules, including on “ownership unbundling” — that is, ensuring that the pipeline is not owned directly by the gas supplier. The rules also dictate that at least 10 per cent of the line’s capacity must be offered to third parties. But under a Franco-German compromise, EU ambassadors also agreed that the member state where the import pipeline lands — in this case Germany — will decide how to apply those rules."
US welcomes Germany’s announcement of new gas terminals
Financial Times, 12 February 2019

"The US has become the biggest exporter of oil to the UK for the first time since the Suez crisis, as the growing bounty of shale production starts to supplant North Sea supplies. In January the US supplied the equivalent of almost one in every four barrels of crude processed by UK oil refineries, or 264,000 barrels a day, illustrating the outsized role American oil now has in Britain’s energy mix. That level was more than Norway, Russia, Nigeria or Algeria, according to data from the cargo-tracking company Kpler, which have all been major suppliers to the UK in recent years. Meanwhile, operators in the UK portion of the North Sea have battled to stem production declines. While monthly export volumes can be volatile, the rising volume of US crude heading to the UK is part of a trend since Washington lifted widespread restrictions on exports in 2015. In 2018 the average volume of US crude exported to the UK doubled to 160,000 b/d, second only to Norway over the course of the year and up from less than 20,000 b/d in 2016. .... The surge in US crude supplies comes as the country’s production has risen close to 12m b/d, up from just 5m b/d a decade ago, thanks largely to oil supplies from shale formations that have been exploited through advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. ... That has allowed Washington to pursue a policy that the Trump administration has dubbed “American energy dominance”, with the country overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer, as well as becoming a major gas supplier. Shipments overseas have leapt since the US lifted restrictions on exports that had been in place since the Arab oil embargoes of the 1970s, with Washington keen to reap the economic benefits and wield its energy clout as a tool of foreign policy.  While oil analysts say the jump in exports to Britain has primarily been driven by economics, the country’s growing reliance on one supplier may still raise questions at a time when UK trade policy is already in flux due to Brexit. US exports to the UK peaked in 1957, after President Dwight Eisenhower authorised 300,000 b/d of shipments to relieve shortages caused by the shutdown of the Suez Canal, partly in return for the UK and France agreeing to withdraw troops, according to the book Risk-Taking in International Politics by Rose McDermott. Tight regulations on the UK’s own nascent shale industry have also been attacked by energy executives including Ineos’s Jim Ratcliffe, the UK’s richest man, who have warned the government they are harming British competitiveness. The UK has a diverse range of oil suppliers, with more than 50 countries having exported crude to the country in the past three years, but others closer to home such as Norway may feel they are losing out. Norway’s crude exports to the UK, which alongside domestic production have made up the bulk of the feedstock for the country’s 1.1m b/d of daily refining activity, fell 13 per cent last year.  The rise in US exports to the UK has been driven primarily by two US-based companies, ExxonMobil and Valero, which own two of the six oil refineries still operating in the UK. Exxon’s Fawley plant near Southampton, the UK’s largest oil refinery, in January imported more than 4.3m barrels of US crude primarily sourced from the Permian shale field in Texas, according to Kpler. Last year Exxon said it planned to spend £500m on the 270,000 b/d facility to expand its lifespan. Fawley is set to take the first US-to-UK supertanker shipment later this month, carrying more than 2m barrels. Valero, the world’s largest independent refiner, imported 2.6m barrels of US crude in January to its plant in Pembroke, Wales, while a further 2m barrels went into the Tranmere oil terminal that feeds the Stanlow refinery on the south side of the river Mersey, which is owned by the Indian company Essar."

US becomes UK’s top oil supplier for first time since Suez
Financial Times, 6 February 2019

"McKinsey counts more than 350 new electric vehicle (EV) models debuting by 2025, one of the conditions for mass-market adoption. Global demand for gasoline is set to peak around 2021 thanks to electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel efficiency gains. The energy research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicts  charging infrastructure investment in the US will exceed $18 billion annually by 2030 for equipment, installation, operations, and services. China is expected to have three times more energy demand from EVs by then."
Oil companies and utilities are buying up all the electric car charging startups
Quartz, 5 February 2019

"The crisis, years in the making, has left many of Venezuela’s roughly 31 million people destitute and hungry, sent more than two million people into neighboring countries as refugees and created a new source of instability in Latin America. The outcome of the struggle will determine not only who controls Venezuela’s government but also its proven oil reserves, which by someestimates are the world’s largest.... in the next few days and weeks, the impact of the United States’ sanctions will begin to ripple through the country. Fuel shortages are expected to start in the countryside and eventually reach the capital, Caracas, further constricting the country’s economy by interfering with people’s ability to work and making food and medicine even harder to obtain."
Who Supports Which Leader in Venezuela? Why Is This Important?
New York Times, 4 February 2019

"Surging production from the Permian - the largest shale basin in the US - requires an “optimal” price band of $60 to $70 per barrel to maintain its momentum, according to the chief executive of the biggest player in the area. "WTI [West Texas Intermediate] to remain in the $60 to $70 range and Brent a bit higher than that depending on how that differential works out, I think for US shale that’s an optimal range even though development can continue at lower levels because of the lower breakevens,” Occidental Petroleum’s Vicki Hollub told The National in an interview in Abu Dhabi. WTI is the widely used benchmark for North American crude. The US became the world’s largest crude producer last year with output hitting 11.9 million barrels per day in November, outpacing sovereign producer Saudi Arabia, and Russia. The US Energy Information Administration has forecast rising output with US production likely to surge past 12.1 million bpd in 2019."
WTI oil at $60 to $70 "optimal" to support US shale growth, says Occidental chief
The National, 4 February 2019

"The highly anticipated EIA-914 report came out on Jan. 31, showing US oil production surging to 11.9 mb/d for the month of November. Oil markets initially sold-off on that, but close followers of the fundamentals know that the adjustment + weekly actually showed the production figure to be over ~12.1 mb/d for the month of November, so the 11.9 mb/d was actually a "disappointment" versus what the data showed.... This chart illustrates that the growth we saw from US shale over the summer is starting to stall. This is in line with our global oil supply & demand model indicating that Q1 will show stalled US production growth over Q4.... the growth this year may just be ~800k b/d to 900k b/d exit-to-exit, which is a big slowdown from the +2 mb/d we saw last year.... Based on our shale basin analysis, it appears that basins outside of the Permian are now starting to see well productivity growth stall/moving lower. You can see our report here which detailed some of the findings. If US shale well completions are flat this year versus last year, a higher percent of new well production will go towards replacing declines last year. So in order to keep the same momentum going forward, US shale needs to complete more wells with either the same productivity or higher productivity. It's akin to a runner running a treadmill, but that treadmill is getting faster and faster. US shale needs to complete more and more wells each year just to stay flat, which will be a tall order considering 2018 broke the record by a mile."
U.S. Oil Production Hits New Record High, But The Data Shows The Growth Has Flatlined Since
HFI Research, 3 February 2019

"Britain’s nuclear power stations recorded a 12% decline in their contributions to the country’s energy system over the past month, as outages raised concerns over how long the ageing plants will be able to keep operating. A temporary closure of two of the country’s eight nuclear plants resulted in a double-digit drop in nuclear generation in January, compared to the same period last year. Prospects for new nuclear projects have commanded headlines and government attention in recent weeks, with Hitachi and Toshiba scrapping their plans for major new plants. But the fate of the existing plants, which usually provide about a fifth of the UK’s electricity supplies, has been pulled into focus by outages due to safety checks and engineering works running over schedule. Nuclear outages also push up carbon emissions because any capacity shortfall will typically be replaced by fossil fuel power stations. Seven of the power stations use an advanced gas reactor (AGR) design, the oldest of which is 43 years old and the youngest 30 years. Most were built with a lifetime of about 35 years in mind. All are due to be closed in the 2020s after owner EDF Energy extended their lives, but there are now fears that ageing infrastructure may reduce their output or even lead them to shut early. Iain Staffell, lecturer in sustainable energy at Imperial College, which compiled the nuclear output data, said: “Just as Toshiba and Hitachi have pulled out of building new reactors, we have one third of the existing nuclear capacity unavailable either for maintenance or because their maximum power has been reduced as they get older. “Many of our reactors were built in the late 70s, and like your typical 40-year-old they aren’t in peak physical condition any more.”"
Fate of UK’s nuclear plants in doubt over ageing infrastructure
Guardian, 3 February 2019

"A Chinese-led consortium has discovered the UK’s biggest gasfield in more than a decade, leading experts to say there is life yet in the country’s offshore sector. Drilling found the equivalent of about 250m barrels of oil could be recovered from the Glengorm reservoir in the central North Sea, about 5% of the UK’s annual gas demand. The find was hailed as significant by industry and the regulator of the region’s last oil and gas reserves, where production has been declining since the turn of the century.... Andy Samuel, the chief executive of the regulator, said the UK continental shelf still held an estimated 10bn-20bn barrels of oil and gas, “so there is every chance of yet more significant finds”. The number of new wells being drilled has fallen in recent years; in 2018 it fell to a level last seen in 1965. However, the amount of oil and gas found has increased from 83m barrel of oil equivalent in 2014 to 175m in 2017."
Discovery of biggest UK gasfield in a decade raises industry hopes
Guardian, 29 January 2019
"A Chinese-led consortium has discovered the UK’s biggest gasfield in more than a decade, leading experts to say there is life yet in the country’s offshore sector. Drilling found the equivalent of about 250m barrels of oil could be recovered from the Glengorm reservoir in the central North Sea, about 5% of the UK’s annual gas demand.... Andy Samuel, the chief executive of the regulator, said the UK continental shelf still held an estimated 10bn-20bn barrels of oil and gas, “so there is every chance of yet more significant finds”. The number of new wells being drilled has fallen in recent years; in 2018 it fell to a level last seen in 1965. However, the amount of oil and gas found has increased from 83m barrel of oil equivalent in 2014 to 175m in 2017

Discovery of biggest UK gasfield in a decade raises industry hopes
Guardian, 29 January 2019

"A year ago, the U.S. government saw American crude production averaging 11.95 million barrels a day .... Shale drillers are set to exceed that this year. The Energy Information Administration now estimates output will top out at 14.53 million barrels a day in 2031, according to its Annual Energy Outlook released Thursday. Why such a big difference? Near-term prices are higher than what the agency assumed last year, boosting the baseline production, according to the EIA. The U.S. will be a net exporter of petroleum -- and energy in general -- next year, years sooner than previous annual estimates, something the EIA flagged in its short-term outlook earlier this month. That’s due to the faster increases in crude and natural gas liquids production, combined with slower demand growth, according to EIA Administrator Linda Capuano. “America’s move to net exports was supposed to be five or six years off,” said Kevin Book, managing director of the Washington-based consultancy ClearView Energy Partners LLC. “Now it’s next year. That’s big news.”"
US Oil Production 23 Years Ahead of Schedule
Bloomberg, 25 January 2019

"Rocks at the bottom of the North Sea may provide the perfect storage location for renewable energy, according to a new study. Excess power could be stored in the form of compressed air inside porous formations on the seabed, providing a reservoir that can provide energy on demand. This pressurised air can be released to drive a turbine, generating a large amount of electricity. This would allow green energy to be stored in summer and released in winter, when demand is highest. Along with battery storage and connections linking Britain’s power supply to other European nations, experts hope compressed air energy storage will provide the UK with a constant supply of green energy.... In their new analysis, scientists from the universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde suggested drilling deep wells into North Sea rocks would create sites at which large quantities of air could be injected into sandstone pores. In their study they used mathematical models to assess the potential of this technique in British waters.... One way to save money and make the entire process more efficient would be to place the underwater wells close to large-scale offshore wind projects so energy could be funnelled straight down into the rock. A similar process in which compressed air is stored in deep salt caverns is already being used at sites in the US and Germany. These results were published in the journal Nature Energy."

North Sea rocks could act as large-scale underwater renewable energy stores, study finds
Independent, 21 January 2019

"Australia’s wind and solar boom looks set to power through 2019 following a record year, despite grid constraints and extra scrutiny from network operators to make sure new projects don’t spark blackouts like ones that hit two years ago....Australia generates nearly 20 percent of its electricity from renewables. This is forecast to jump to 75 percent over the next 20 years. A total of 14.7 gigawatts (GW) of large-scale solar and wind projects worth A$20 billion ($14 billion) were under construction or reached financial close last year, more than double 2017’s record, according to the Clean Energy Council..... Renewable projects added to the grid have grown from 22 with 1.2 GW of capacity in 2013 to a record 45 projects with 2.9 GW added in 2018, AEMO said. There are 114 more applications representing 15.9 GW pending, indicating plenty of potential congestion ahead. The biggest challenge is that developers are all vying to connect to a grid running 5,000 km (3,100 miles) from Queensland in the north to South Australia and Tasmania."
Australia's solar, wind boom to power past grid woes in 2019
Reuters, 20 January 2019

"The Alberta government is spending $23.4 million to convince Canadians why a major oil pipeline project is needed. The marketing campaign, Keep Canada Working, is aimed at getting people to support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. The project would triple the amount of oil that flows from Alberta to the B.C. coast for export and increase its value. The message is that Trans Mountain would boost Canada’s economy and support jobs across the country. The money is for television, radio, newspaper, internet and billboard ads."
Alberta spending millions to promote Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion
Windsor Star, 19 January 2019

"America’s journey to preeminence in the global oil trade is about to hit another milestone. Propelled by the shale-oil boom, the U.S. is already producing more crude than either Russia or Saudi Arabia, who until recently vied for the top spot. By mid-year America will go one better. At the moment, Saudi Arabia could raise production all the way up to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day, surpassing the 11.8 million daily barrels produced by the U.S. in December, according to the International Energy Agency. Soon even that won’t be enough. American crude output is poised to expand by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, according to the IEA, which sees the U.S. exceeding the Saudis’ maximum level within the next six months. “By the middle of the year, U.S. crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia,” the Paris-based agency said in a report on Friday."
U.S. Could Soon Pump More Crude Than Saudis Can at Their Peak
Bloomberg, 18 January 2019

"The UK’s nuclear power capabilities are slowly disappearing. Right now, the country gets about 20 per cent of its power from nuclear – it’s second only to gas as a source of electricity. But by the early 2030s, only one of the seven existing nuclear power stations in the UK is still planned to be in operation, and attempts to build replacements continue to falter. On Thursday, Japanese giant Hitachi pulled the plug on the £16 billion Wylfa Newydd nuclear plant on Anglesey in Wales, as well as another planned project at Oldbury in Gloucestershire. It is the latest in a string of blows to the UK’s nuclear new build programme. In November last year, Toshiba pulled out of the Moorside project in Cumbria – between them, the three scrapped power stations would have met 15 per cent of the UK’s future electricity demands."
Only renewables can fix the UK's nuclear energy crisis
The Week, 18 January 2019

"After closing out 2018 in free-fall amid fears of a global supply glut and economic slowdown, U.S. crude prices have rebounded more than 18 percent to start this year. That’s the biggest climb over the first 13 trading days since January 2001, according to New York Mercantile Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The swift climb higher has coincided with a steep drop in volatility. After reaching its highest level in more than two years, an index tracking West Texas Intermediate crude options prices has sunk to the lowest since November. Why all the optimism? Analysts and traders credit progress in U.S.-China trade talks, a more dovish stance on interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and signs that OPEC-led production cuts are starting to take a bite out of supplies."
Oil Hasn't Started a Year This Hot Since the Turn of the Century
Bloomberg, 18 January 2019

"U.S. shale production is poised to slow down this year as drillers reduce their budgets in response to lower oil prices, the head of the world’s largest oil-field services company said Friday. Schlumberger Ltd. Chief Executive Paal Kibsgaard said on a call with investors that the recent decline in oil prices had prompted a more conservative approach among the world’s oil producers, a dynamic he said was particularly pronounced in the U.S. Mr. Kibsgaard said the budgets of U.S. shale drillers, who are customers of Schlumberger, could be slightly down in 2019, especially in the early part of the year. That means the rapid production growth seen in the U.S. in 2018 will slow, he said. “We could be facing a more moderate growth in U.S. shale production in coming years,” Mr. Kibsgaard said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. Some frackers have already begun scaling back next year’s drilling plans amid weak crude prices. U.S. oil prices had fallen more than 30% in recent months. They topped $53 per barrel Friday, which would be their highest close since early December, but are still low enough to force many shale companies to pull back on spending. Producers Chesapeake Energy Corp., Diamondback Energy Inc., Parsley Energy Inc. and Centennial Resource Development Inc. either plan to operate fewer drilling rigs in 2019 or recently lowered production plans, the companies have said in public statements and filings. The cuts so far have been modest, and shale drillers remain on track to push U.S. crude production to new highs this year, though not at the same rate of growth seen in 2018. The Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it expects oil production to reach an average of 12.1 million barrels daily in 2019 from an average of 10.9 million barrels last year."
Shale Boom is Slowing, Oil-field Bellwether Warns
Wall St Journal, 18 January 2019

"While low oil prices are beginning to slow the growth of U.S. shale, in the years ahead oil and gas drilling could be curtailed by a different problem: a shortage of water. Water is a crucial ingredient in the fracking process, and drillers use copious volumes of it. The problem for the U.S. oil industry is that so much of the output growth expected over the next half-decade or so depends very heavily on the Permian basin, where water is increasingly scarce. Water already accounts for about 15 percent of the cost of a shale well, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. “In the Permian, total spending on water is expected to double over the next 5 years, to $22B, with E&Ps on avg using 50 barrels (bbls) of water for each lateral foot completed,” the investment bank wrote in a new report. “Assuming 10k lateral feet per well, this implies that the ~5,500 existing Permian well permits will require ~2.75 billion bbls of water to complete.” That’s a lot of water in an area that doesn’t have a lot of it. “Given the sizeable water need, we believe drought and water scarcity present long-term risks to shale economics, particularly in the Permian, a core area of growth in a drought-prone region,” Morgan Stanley warned. Morgan Stanley goes on to provide further detail into the scale of the problem. Morgan Stanley overlaid water scarcity data from the World Resources Institute with Permian well locations, finding that “53% of Permian wells being drilled today are located in areas with high water risk,” the investment bank concluded. “While operators are comfortable with water availability at the moment, there are precedents (most recently in 2011/2012 in Oklahoma) where severe drought conditions materially affected completion performance.” There is also another separate water problem facing shale drillers. “Produced water” – water that comes out of a well when drilled – must be handled somehow. The volume of produced water that comes out of a shale well can exceed that of oil by a ratio of 10 to 1. The ratio also increases over time as the oil from individual wells begins to deplete, so the cost-per-barrel for water disposal also rises. Water can be injected underground into disposal wells, which carries environmental and seismic risk. Or it is trucked away for recycling or some other form of disposal, often done by third parties, at huge expense. Last year, Wood Mackenzie said that the rising cost of water disposal alone would increase the breakeven price in the Permian by between $3 and $6 per barrel, potentially shaving off future Permian oil production by around 400,000 bpd by 2025.Morgan Stanley notes that shale drillers are increasingly recycling the water they use to drill wells, injecting it back underground to be used again in the next well. That saves on water use, of course, but it also cuts down on the cost of water disposal. The investment bank says simply recycling water could save around $1 per barrel."
Low Oil Prices Are Not The Only Problem For The Permian, 17 January 2019

"Hitachi has said it will suspend work on a multi-billion-pound UK nuclear project because of rising costs. The decision puts thousands of jobs at risk if the £13bn plant at Wylfa Newydd in Anglesey, north Wales, is scrapped. The Japanese firm had been in talks with the UK government since June about funding for the project, which was being built by its Horizon subsidiary. The government said it had failed to agree terms with Hitachi. The nuclear industry said it was "disappointing". Hitachi said it would also suspend work on another site, in Oldbury in Gloucestershire, "until a solution can be found". About 9,000 workers had been expected to be involved in building the two nuclear reactors, which were due to be operational by the mid-2020s.... Hinkley, Moorside, Wylfa, Oldbury, Bradwell and Sizewell were identified as the sites for the most significant national wave of new nuclear power construction anywhere in the world. Of those six - only one is under construction, three have been abandoned and two face an uphill battle to get the green light. Under those circumstances you might think the government would be embarrassed that its energy policy was in disarray. But it's not. The collapse of the Wylfa and Oldbury projects today (following the abandonment of Moorside) is evidence of some new economic realities that have seen government enthusiasm for new nuclear fade. The first and most obvious is the cost .... The Nuclear Industry Association says the UK has six sites that are licensed to build new nuclear power stations and eight sites that are currently generating power. However, it said that only one of the eight currently operating are due to be in use by 2030. The GMB union warned of an energy crisis."
Nuclear plant in Anglesey suspended by Hitachi
January, 17 January 2019

"U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018."
2019 US Oil Output to Average 12MM Barrels Per Day
Rigzone, 16 January 2019

"Oil demand will grow steadily in the 2020s and peak in the late 2030s, according to Rystad Energy’s current long-term outlook. “In our long-term outlook we currently see oil demand growing steadily in the 2020s and peaking in the late-2030s, as we incorporate moderate technological shifts and accelerated efficiency gains that will flatten on-road transportation demand and petrochemical feedstock demand growth towards 2040,” Rystad Energy’s Chief Oil Analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone recently. Tonhaugen warned however that in the company’s “low case”, oil demand could potentially peak ten years earlier, in 2027, “given additional demand displacement by a more rapid transportation electrification, oil-to-gas and oil-to-renewables power switching, and the integration of biofuels and bioplastics”. The Rystad Energy representative added that “even in a scenario with more rapid transportation electrification, the E&P industry still needs to make new discoveries and/or find ways to extract more oil out of existing fields to satisfy oil demand to 2040”."
Oil Demand to Grow Steadily in 2020s
Rigzone, 15 January 2018

"TAE Technologies will bring a fusion-reactor technology to commercialization in the next five years, its CEO announced recently at the University of California, Irvine. "The notion that you hear fusion is another 20 years away, 30 years away, 50 years away—it's not true," said Michl Binderbauer, CEO of  the company formerly known as Tri Alpha Energy. "We're talking commercialization coming in the next five years for this technology."... "What we're really going to see in the next couple years is actually the ability to actually make net energy, and that's going to happen in the machine we call Copernicus," he said in a "fireside chat" at UC Irvine."
Energy From Fusion In 'A Couple Years,' CEO Says, Commercialization In Five
Forbes, 14 January 2019

"Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels well into the next decade, averaging around $65-70 per barrel through 2023, according to an annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters. Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018 and have changed little over the last three years. Long-term expectations for the average price of Brent crude remain anchored around $70 per barrel, close to the $72 average realised in 2018 ( The results are based on the responses from just over 1,000 energy market professionals to a poll conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 11. Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018."
Oil prices expected to stay anchored around $65-70 through 2023: Kemp
Reuters, 15 January 2019

"Who could blame the board of the Japanese company Hitachi if its members decide at their meeting this week to scrap plans for a new nuclear power station at Wylfa on the North Wales island of Anglesey? Hitachi has invested more than £840m in the project over the past six years. The technology has passed all the tests set by the UK’s nuclear regulator. But the company has been unable to get the government to put in place the clear and credible financial structure necessary to underpin the investment. That failure has already led other investors to abandon the new plant planned at Moorside in Cumbria....Hitachi’s withdrawal would mark the collapse of the energy policy adopted in 2013 by the UK’s coalition government. Facing what were believed to be ever-rising energy prices and the need to reduce carbon emissions, the policy plumped for new nuclear, promising that 35 gigawatts of new capacity would be on stream by the mid 2030s — more than replacing the first generation of nuclear plants, which would by then have reached the end of their useful lives. Because the price of gas seemed doomed to keep rising, new nuclear would come to look highly competitive over time as well as reducing dependence on imports.  Since then much has changed, and the assumptions which underpinned the old policy now look laughably wrong. The costs of all forms of energy (apart from nuclear) have fallen dramatically and there is no shortage of supply. Electricity demand is down thanks to efficiency gains and new technology. The contract for the first new nuclear station being built at Hinkley Point in Somerset, which enjoys a guaranteed index-linked price for 35 years from the moment the plant is commissioned, looks exorbitant. The indexation dates from 2013. If the plant comes on stream in 2027 as promised, power from Hinkley will cost well over £100 per megawatt-hour. At the same time the cost of renewables has fallen radically, to the point where subsidies are largely unnecessary. As the latest capacity auctions demonstrate, it is beginning to be possible to rely on some measure of storage to manage the peaks and troughs of demand.  The demise of Wylfa forces the need for a comprehensive review of energy policy. Since the UK government is too busy preparing for Brexit to focus seriously on any other issue, the review should be conducted independently. The questions are simple: how much energy is likely to be needed? What are the most cost effective ways of reducing emissions? What alternative competitive sources of supply are now available, and what research priorities can improve efficiency and advance the next generation of supplies? Then, crucially, what incentives or guarantees are necessary to secure the required investment? "
After Wylfa — the case for an independent review of UK energy policy
Financial Times, 13 January 2019

"Huge salt caverns hundreds of metres underground are being converted into vast gas stores to ensure the UK has enough energy to heat homes if another Beast from the East hits. A little-known firm employing just 50 people has risen to become the UK’s biggest player in gas storage. Storengy, a subsidiary of French energy giant Engie, said it will complete the final five of 20 salt caverns at Stublach in Cheshire this year. That will take its market share from around a quarter now to nearly 30%, far larger than other big players in gas storage, such as SSE. The £500m project started in 2007 and has prompted drilling into salt layers 500m deep, adding water to turn it into brine and then painstakingly extracting that over several years to create caverns to hold gas. The region has a long history of salt mining, with the voids used for other purposes including records from the National Archive. The first 10 of Storengy’s caverns were finished and operational from 2016, and it has since added five more, with a final five due for completion by December.... MPs are also investigating whether the UK has enough storage after the country’s biggest facility, accounting for about three-quarters of gas stores, closed due to ageing infrastructure. Centrica’s Rough gas store off the coast of Yorkshire closed in 2017. The government has rebuffed previous calls to support new gas storage, saying the fact supplies did not run out last winter showed the market was working.... The government said: “Over the past 10 years, analysis undertaken by the government and others has delivered a consistent message: that our gas system is secure, with GB supplies able to meet gas demand even under severe weather conditions for an extended period of time.”"
Salt caverns double as UK gas stores to beat cold snaps
Guardian, 13 January 2019
"Saudi Arabia has finally silenced its peak-oil critics and simultaneously revived interest in its stalled $2 trillion (£1.6 trillion) plan for a stock market float of state-owned producer Aramco. The kingdom revealed this week it has enough crude to pump at current rates for at least another 70 years. At the end of 2017, Saudi oil reserves stood at an eye-watering 268bn barrels, up from previous estimates of 266bn. By comparison, the UK’s remaining cache of retrievable oil under the seabed of the North Sea will be almost completely drained, probably after another couple of decades."
Saudi Arabia has more oil than we may ever need
Telegraph, 12 January 2019

"Three-quarters of energy industry stakeholders are likely to avoid greater connectivity due to concerns around security vulnerabilities. That’s according to new research from international legal practice Osborne Clarke, which suggests concerns surrounding security, data protection and privacy risks are slowing the adoption of technologies such as the Internet of Things and 5G networks. Two-thirds of all businesses from across 11 countries said security concerns are very or extremely likely to lead their business to avoid greater connectivity, with 64% citing data and privacy concerns as another potential barrier – these worries were especially prevalent in businesses in the energy sector, at 74%. Despite this, the report also found the energy sector is the most likely (88%) to recognise the strategic importance of 5G over the next five years. Ashley Hurst, Partner at Osborne Clarke, said: “There is understandable hesitancy around privacy and security issues given the potential consequences of cyber-attack for energy companies but there is a real danger in falling behind the curve for those that don’t take advantage of greater connectivity."
Energy firms ‘avoiding greater connectivity due to cyber threats’

Energy Live News, 11 January 2019

"As a big storm was sweeping over the northern parts of the country, paralyzing transportation and economic activity, Bente Nyland took the floor in the Oslo premises of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. The directorate director made clear that she had good news to tell. The Norwegian oil and gas production is now about to significantly increase, Nyland said. After 15 years of falling production, the output is bouncing back and a new peak oil is expected in 2023. The volumes of oil and gas will that year be almost on the level of 2004, the Directorate’s new shelf report shows.... According to the new shelf report, oil production will by year 2023 increase to 115 million standard cubic meters, a 40 percent increase from 2019. The increase is much due to the major Johan Sverdrup project which comes into production in 2020. In 2018, national oil production amounted to 86.2 million Sm³, a reduction of 6.3 percent from 2017. Additional decrease is expected in 2019, before the output picks pace in 2020. Natural gas production in 2018 amounted to 121.7 billion Sm³, a slight reduction from the previous year. The natural gas production will remain on the same level until at least year 2030, the new report says. At the same time, investments in shelf developments are reaching new heights and an unprecedented number of new licenses are issued. In 2018, a total of 87 production and exploration licenses were awarded to oil companies. The main focus of Nyland and the oil industry is now on the Norwegian Arctic waters. According to the Directorate, nearly two-thirds of the gas resources that have not yet been discovered are located in the Barents Sea."
As climate crisis sets in, Norway taps into new oil
Barents Observer, 10 January 2019

"Saudi Arabia is expected to announce a slight rise in its crude oil and gas reserves on Wednesday after being independently audited, according to a source familiar with the matter. Saudi Arabia’s reserves of easily recoverable oil have long been the world’s largest. For almost 30 years - despite rising production, large swings in oil prices and improved technology - Riyadh has annually reported the same number for reserves at around 261 billion barrels, according to a statistical review by BP (BP.L). An independent external audit of Saudi Aramco’s oil reserves - an essential part of the preparatory work for its planned initial public offering - found the state oil giant to have higher oil and gas reserves than it previously reported, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters in April."
Saudi Arabia to announce slight rise in oil, gas reserves after audit - source
Reuters, 9 January 2019

"Global transportation demand for crude oil is expected to peak in the late 2020s, due to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), improved efficiency standards for internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, and consumer preferences, Wood Mackenzie said in a recent note. Most major oil companies and analysts also believe that by the late 2020s crude oil demand for transportation fuels will stop growing. As a result, major refiners are preparing for a petrochemical future of their crude oil refining processes to replace part of their gasoline, diesel, and other distillates production after 2030..... Major oil firms, including ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, and Sabic, are developing crude-oil-to-chemicals technologies, while many traditional oil refineries will consider retrofitting to maximize production of chemical feedstocks rather than transportation fuels, the energy consultancy said. According to recent estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), petrochemicals are expected to account for more than a third of global oil demand growth to 2030, and nearly half the growth to 2050, adding nearly 7 million bpd by then. Petrochemicals “will have a greater influence on the future of oil demand than cars, trucks and aviation,” the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said in October 2018. According to a WoodMac analysis from a few months ago, the EV share of the global car fleet is still miniscule, considering that the world’s stock of cars is 1.2 billion units. But battery costs and range are less and less the stumbling blocks in EV adoption. Battery is one third of the cost of an EV today. Yet, costs have already declined by 80 percent this decade and will fall further. Battery pack prices will drop below US$200/kWh this year and then fall by around 10 percent each year, WoodMac said in July. “The critical threshold is US$100/kWh – that’s when EVs will compete on commercial terms with ICE vehicles. We think we’ll get there by 2027,” WoodMac says. EVs will displace around 5 million bpd to 6 million bpd of oil demand by 2040—some 5 percent of total oil demand, the consultancy has estimated."
WoodMac: Demand For Oil In Transportation Sector To Peak In A Decade, 8 January 2019

"Renewables overtook coal as Germany’s main source of energy for the first time last year, accounting for just over 40 percent of electricity production, research showed on Thursday. The shift marks progress as Europe’s biggest economy aims for renewables to provide 65 percent of its energy by 2030 in a costly transition as it abandons nuclear power by 2022 and is devising plans for an orderly long-term exit from coal. The research from the Fraunhofer organization of applied science showed that output of solar, wind, biomass and hydroelectric generation units rose 4.3 percent last year to produce 219 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. That was out of a total national power production of 542 TWh derived from both green and fossil fuels, of which coal burning accounted for 38 percent. Green energy’s share of Germany’s power production has risen from 38.2 percent in 2017 and just 19.1 percent in 2010.... Solar power increased by 16 percent to 45.7 TWh due to a prolonged hot summer, while installed capacity expanded by 3.2 gigawatts (GW) to 45.5 GW last year, according to the Fraunhofer data. The wind power industry produced 111 TWh from combined onshore and offshore capacity of just under 60 GW, constituting 20.4 percent of total German power output.Wind power was the biggest source of energy after domestically mined brown coal power which accounted for 24.1 percent..... Coal plants run on imported hard coal contributed 75.7 TWh, or 13.9 percent of the total. Hydropower only accounted for 3.2 percent of power production at 17 TWh, as extreme summer heat dried out rivers and was accompanied by low rainfall. Biomass output contributed 8.3 percent. Gas-to-power plants accounted for 7.4 percent of the total; nuclear energy for 13.3 percent; with the remainder coming from oil and waste burning. Germany was a net exporter of 45.6 TWh of power in 2018, mostly to the Netherlands, while importing big volumes from France."
Renewables overtake coal as Germany's main energy source
Reuters, 3 January 2019

"The Wall Street Journal compared the well-productivity estimates that top shale-oil companies gave investors to projections from third parties about how much oil and gas the wells are now on track to pump over their lives, based on public data of how they have performed to date. Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America’s four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota. Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions. The shale boom has lifted U.S. output to an all-time high of 11.5 million barrels a day, shaking up the geopolitical balance by putting U.S. production on par with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Journal’s findings suggest current production levels may be hard to sustain without greater spending because operators will have to drill more wells to meet growth targets. Yet shale drillers, most of whom have yet to consistently make money, are under pressure to cut spending in the face of a 40% crude-oil price decline since October. Companies whose wells appear to lag behind forecasts, according to the analysis, include Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Parsley Energy Inc., two of the biggest oil and gas producers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The Journal’s review didn’t include some leading producers, such as Exxon Mobil Corp. , because they didn’t make shale-well projections. Pioneer, Parsley and several other companies disputed the findings, saying the third-party estimates used by the Journal differ from their forecasts on key points such as the likely lifespan of shale wells. Some companies, including major North Dakota producer Whiting Petroleum Corp. , acknowledged the forecasts can be unreliable and said they were moving away from providing such estimates. Another North Dakota driller, Oasis Petroleum Inc., said the projections it provided in investor presentations were estimates made as it tested drilling in vast tracts, including areas it has since abandoned. “It’s not a science,” said Richard Robuck, the company’s treasurer. “It’s more of an art.”....  Schlumberger Ltd. , the oil-field-services giant, reported in a research paper that secondary shale wells completed near older, initial wells in West Texas have been as much as 30% less productive than the initial ones. The problem threatens to upend growth projections for America’s hottest oil field, the company said in October....Flawed forecasting doesn’t mean U.S. oil output is about to drop. Shale wells reach peak production quickly and rapidly decline, so companies are constantly drilling new wells. But if thousands of shale wells produce less over their lifetimes, companies will reap less of a long tail than anticipated, requiring them to spend more to sustain output and making it harder for them to reach profitability....Shale companies have attracted huge amounts of capital from Wall Street over the past decade. So far, investors have largely lost money. Since 2008, an index of U.S. oil-and-gas companies has fallen 43%, while the S&P 500 index has more than doubled in that time, including dividends. The 29 companies in the Journal’s analysis have spent $112 billion more in cash than they generated from operations in the last 10 years, according to data from FactSet, a financial-information firm.... Shale companies began touting a metric known as estimated ultimate recovery, or EUR, in investor presentations. The estimates, often represented graphically by what is known as a type curve, project how much oil and gas wells are likely to produce over several decades, including the rate of decline. The practice of promoting EURs became widespread after oil prices crashed in 2014 and producers, many in need of capital infusions from Wall Street, talked up their prospects. Wall Street’s valuation of many shale companies, which had been closely tied to the value of their proven oil and gas reserves, began diverging..... EUR estimates from many companies were grounded on two assumptions: that they could pack wells closer together, squeezing more value from the land they leased, and that they could replicate their best early wells. The results to date suggest those assumptions were often wrong..... When oil prices plummeted around 75% between 2014 and 2016, to below $30 a barrel, many shale companies used EUR estimates to try to persuade investors that the sector remained a strong place to put their money. The production forecasts made by many companies were “dangerous” because they were based on a small population of wells, and the performance of individual wells varies significantly, said Norman MacDonald, a natural-resource specialist at asset manager Invesco Ltd..... In September 2015, Pioneer Natural Resources, based in Irving, Texas, told investors that it expected wells in the Eagle Ford shale of South Texas to produce 1.3 million barrels of oil and gas apiece. Those wells now appear to be on a pace to produce about 482,000 barrels, 63% less than forecast, according to the Journal’s analysis. An average of Pioneer’s 2015 forecasts for wells it had recently fracked in the Midland portion of the Permian Basin suggested they would produce about 960,000 barrels of oil and gas each. Those wells are now on track to produce about 720,000 barrels, according to the Journal’s review, 25% below Pioneer’s projections. Pioneer disputed the conclusions, noting that it assumes its wells will produce for at least 50 years, while Rystad Energy uses 30 years in its forecasts. Pioneer also assumes its well productivity will fall off at a slower rate than the 7% final decline rate Rystad assumes.... While it is difficult to know how long shale wells will remain productive, assuming tens of thousands of them will pump for 50 years without costly interventions to keep them flowing is extremely optimistic, according to specialists on reserves. The oldest case study to date is in the Barnett shale in and around Fort Worth, Texas, where modern fracking began about 20 years ago. Researchers at the University of Texas and Rice University predicted that many wells in the region, which primarily contains natural gas, won’t even produce for 25 years. About 73% or more of the total output of wells will come in the first decade, with little value coming after 20 years, the researchers said. The decline rates of as low as 5% that some shale companies have adopted for their wells are optimistic, some academics and industry leaders say. Recent studies by Rystad and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd. found that a range of 12% to 16% was the most common decline rate after about five years..... Some companies said they were aware of flaws with the forecasting method and how it has been used, but that they provided the numbers to meet demands from analysts and short-term investors such as hedge funds. Some said that if they didn’t, their stock would underperform peers that made optimistic claims.... Denver-based Whiting Petroleum is de-emphasizing its production estimates at the direction of its chief executive, Bradley Holly. Mr. Holly, who became CEO in November 2017, said the company is now more focused on generating cash, lowering debt and maximizing a well’s returns early in its life. “Your return will really be made in the first two to three years,” he said. One reason thousands of early shale wells aren’t meeting expectations is that many companies extrapolated how much they would produce from small clusters of prolific initial wells, according to reserves specialists. Some also excluded their worst-performing wells from the calculations, which is akin to eliminating strikeouts when projecting a baseball player’s batting average."
Fracking’s Secret Problem—Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast
Wall St Journal, 2 January 2019


".... if you look around and see what the world is now facing I don't think  in the last two or three hundred years we've faced such a concatenation of  problems all at the same time.....[including] the inevitability, it seems to me, of resource wars....  if we are to solve the issues that are ahead of us, we are going to need to think in completely different ways. And the probability, it seems to me, is that the next 20 or 30 years are going to see a period of great instability... I fear the [current] era of small wars is merely the precursor, the pre-shock, for something rather larger to come... we need to find new ways to be able to live together on an overcrowded earth."

Paddy Ashdown, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina 2002 -2006
BBC Radio 4, 'Start The Week', 30 April 2007

"Individual peace is the unit of world peace. By offering Consciousness-Based Education to the coming generation, we can promote a strong foundation for a healthy, harmonious, and peaceful world.... Consciousness-Based education is not a luxury. For our children who are growing up in a stressful, often frightening, crisis-ridden world, it is a necessity."
Academy Award Winning Film Producer David Lynch (Elephant Man, Blue Velvet, etc)
David Lynch Foundation

NLPWESSEX, natural law publishing