"Three US senators are threatening the operators of a small German port with "crushing legal and economic sanctions" for provisioning Russian vessels assisting with constructing the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline.  The US strongly opposes the pipeline, which is owned by Russian gas company Gazprom and will carry natural gas from Russia to Germany.  In their letter,,Republican Senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Ron Johnson accuse port operator Faehrhafen Sassnitz of "knowingly providing significant goods, services, and support" for the project." On Friday, German Minister of State Niels Annen said Germany "firmly rejected" the proposed sanctions, adding the tone and content of the letter were "completely outrageous." "Threatening a close friend and ally with sanctions, and using that kind of language, will not work," Annen told German public broadcaster ZDF. "European energy policy will be decided in Brussels, and not in Washington DC," he said. Murkan Port, located in the small seaside town Sassnitz on Baltic Sea island of Rugen, now finds itself at the center of a geopolitical showdown between Russia and the US. Along with storing sections of pipe, the port serves as a logistic and service center for ships constructing the German end of the pipeline.  These include the Russian-flagged vessels "Fortuna" and "Akademik Cherskiy," which have yet to begin their work, but will become sanctionable, " the instant that either vessel dips a pipe into the water to construct the Nord Stream 2 pipeline," according to the letter." The US argues that the pipeline will increase Europe's dependence on Russia, which both Berlin and Moscow dispute. The US proposes selling European's American natural gas shipped across the Atlantic as an alternative. "
Nord Stream 2: US senators threaten German port with 'crushing' sanctions
Deutsche Welle, 7 August 2020

"The $1trn Norwegian sovereign wealth fund that’s the world’s largest plans to invest about NKr100bn ($10.8bn) in wind and solar projects under new freedoms it was given last year, it was reported on Tuesday. The Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), based on the nation’s vast oil & gas wealth, will make the investments in unlisted renewable energy projects in the three years to 2022, said Reuters quoting its outgoing CEO Yngve Slyngstad."
Norway's oil & gas-fuelled wealth fund 'plans $11bn wind and solar spree'
Recharge, 3 March 2020

"The International Monetary Fund, in a new report, believes that global oil demand will peak around 2041, and then decline. If so, per-barrel prices will likely trend down too. It doesn’t take a genius to see that oil’s position as the energy source of choice is rapidly being challenged because of climate-change worries and the rapid improvement in alternative energy technology. The focus of the IMF’s view on peak oil is over its effect on major oil-producing countries like those to be found on the shores of the Persian Gulf. Peak oil could impose a major strain on these nations, the argument goes, given their heavy reliance on hydrocarbon sales. These countries, which built national savings schemes in the form of sovereign wealth funds out of those oil and gas sales, are at risk of spending down their rainy-day funds. There is, thus, an existential crisis just two decades down the road.The International Monetary Fund, in a new report, believes that global oil demand will peak around 2041, and then decline. If so, per-barrel prices will likely trend down too. It doesn’t take a genius to see that oil’s position as the energy source of choice is rapidly being challenged because of climate-change worries and the rapid improvement in alternative energy technology. The focus of the IMF’s view on peak oil is over its effect on major oil-producing countries like those to be found on the shores of the Persian Gulf. Peak oil could impose a major strain on these nations, the argument goes, given their heavy reliance on hydrocarbon sales. These countries, which built national savings schemes in the form of sovereign wealth funds out of those oil and gas sales, are at risk of spending down their rainy-day funds. There is, thus, an existential crisis just two decades down the road. Well, maybe not..... The argument that Arab Gulf countries are at risk as the world pivots away from oil – that they will spend down their national savings – ignores the work already in train to transition to a new and sustainable economic model. The transformation might be slow in some cases, but it is happening."
Gulf economies prepare for ‘peak oil’
Asia Times, 3 March 2020

"Not all gas turbine manufacturers currently offer options for Natural Gas/hydrogen fuel mixtures but most of the major ones have developed combustion systems to handle off-spec gases to service markets such as steelworks off-gases (BFG, COG), IGCC applications, and bio- and waste-derived syngases. These off-spec gases include those with a high hydrogen content, and this article reviews the development status towards 100% hydrogen for one Gas Turbine manufacturer, Siemens....In common with other manufacturers, Siemens has set a target of being able to offer Gas Turbines capable of burning 100% hydrogen across the range, and is developing DLE combustors to service the expected demand. The challenge is to do this without compromising efficiency, startup times, and emissions of NOx. This is being achieved by developing combustor designs with an increasing proportion of hydrogen in Natural Gas. The DLE burner design used on the SGT-700 (33 MW) has demonstrated up to 40 vol% H₂ capability. Recent testing has shown that 50 vol% is possible on the SGT-800 (50 MW), which translates to 60 vol% on the SGT-600 (25 MW) as this operates at a lower temperature. As the hydrogen economy unfolds over the next decade, there is a clear intention that Gas Turbines will be ready to meet the upcoming market without compromising today’s high performance expectations, in terms of emissions, response and efficiency."
Hydrogen as a Fuel for Gas Turbines
The Chemical Engineer, 2 March 2020

"Oil prices will remain subdued in 2020 as growth concerns weigh on demand and fuel a glut of crude, a Reuters poll showed on Friday ahead of production-policy talks among OPEC and its allies next week. The poll of 42 economists and analysts forecast Brent LCOc1 to average $62.50 a barrel next year, little changed from last month’s $62.38 outlook, which was the lowest prediction for 2020 in about two years. The benchmark has averaged about $64 per barrel so far this year.... Analysts pegged demand growth at 0.8-1.4 million bpd (mbpd) next year. While most respondents said OPEC and its allies were likely to maintain output cuts, they did not anticipate deeper curbs. “Saudi Arabia is likely to want to keep supporting oil prices to improve its fiscal position. However, the kingdom probably won’t push for deeper cuts to avoid losing more market share to the U.S.,” Capital Economics analyst Caroline Bain said..... While U.S. production will remain high, overall shale output could lose some momentum, analysts said. “U.S. shale growth will slow in 2020 and with expectations that OPEC+ will continue with their production cuts, prices should be fairly supported in the first half of the year,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA."
Oil to be stuck in a rut in 2020 as slowing demand fuels glut: Reuters poll
Reuters, 29 November 2019

"Chinese oil demand could peak around 2030 as demand in the transportation sector slows, although petrochemical use may help pick up some of the slack, according to a research report by China's state-owned oil firm CNPC. Oil demand may peak at 16.4mn b/d (705mn t) around 2030 and fall to 13.7mn b/d by 2050 along with slower GDP growth, CNPC's research arm ETRI said in its Energy Outlook 2050 report published this month. Its latest forecast implies only marginal growth over the next 11 years. China's apparent oil demand — domestic crude output plus net oil imports — averaged 13.8mn b/d during January-July this year, up by 5pc or 630,000 b/d from 13.2mn b/d a year earlier. ... The almost doubling of China's car population, estimated at 350 cars for every 1,000 people by 2050 from around 170:1,000 last year will help to boost oil demand. But oil will account for a smaller share as a fuel source in the transportation sector, forming about a 75pc share by 2035 and 61pc by 2050 compared with 88pc last year, ETRI said. The share of gas will rise to 10pc by 2035 and 13pc by 2050 from 7pc in 2018. Electricity will account for 10pc by 2035 and 18pc by 2050 from 4pc last year. EV sales could reach about the same level as gasoline-fuelled vehicle sales by 2040-45, contributing to the rise of electricity use in the transportation sector, ETRI said. New energy vehicles will account for 21.5pc and 44.2pc share of China's car population by 2035 and 2050 respectively from less than 2pc currently. ETRI also forecast growing gas import dependency to maintain at around 49-51pc amid the Chinese government's efforts to reduce pollution."
China's oil demand to peak by 2030: CNPC
Argus, 29 August 2019
 
"In the last 4 years, conventional crude production was just 1 mb/d higher than in 2005. This was mainly an increase from Iraq (which was 2.7 mb/d)."
2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq
Crude Oil Peak, 26 August 2019

"Qatar will lose its title as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) within the next year, as Australia ramps up production on a slew of multi-billion dollar export projects. “Australia and Qatar continued to jostle for the title of the world’s largest LNG exporter over the first five months of 2019,” the Australian government said in a recent report. Australia exported more LNG than Qatar in November 2018 and April 2019. But now, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) says Australia is on track to consistently export more LNG than Qatar, as recently commissioned projects such as Wheatstone, Ichthys, and Prelude ramp up production....While Australia ramps up, Qatar is unlikely to stay idle. The country plans to boost its LNG capacity by early 2024 to 110 million tons a year, up from around 77 million tons a year, according to Reuters. “China can’t absorb all of this new LNG which is coming into the market,” Browne said, adding that while prices are down, they’re not out.... It is the second major study in recent years to cast doubt on economic claims made by the shale gas industry. Researchers at Heriot-Watt University said the UK’s most promising shale gas reservoirs had been warped by tectonic shifts that could thwart efforts to tap them."
Qatar may be losing the top spot as world’s biggest LNG exporter
CNBC, 23 August 2019

"The UK’s underground shale gas reserves may deliver only a fraction of the gas promised by fracking firms and government ministers, according to a study. Research by the University of Nottingham found that early estimates may have exaggerated the UK’s shale reserves up to sixfold. Last week government officials hinted that a review could be launched looking into loosening UK limits on fracking because shale “could be an important new domestic energy source”. The University of Nottingham said it had used a new technique to measure the shale gas trapped in the Bowland shale basin in central England and found significantly lower levels than was suggested by a widely quoted study six years ago. In 2013 the British Geological Survey (BGS) found there were likely to be 1,300tn cubic feet of gas. The latest study found there may be 200tn cubic feet, enough to meet the UK’s gas demand for around a decade. Prof Colin Snape, of the University of Nottingham, said the BGS’s study had involved desk-based research based on the findings of shale developers in the US rather than actual reserves. The new research was based on studies of actual UK shales, using gas absorption data and field data, he said."
UK shale gas reserves may be fraction of what is claimed – study
Guardian, 20 August 2019

"There are many sources of grid flexibility, but the one that seems to have the most potential and is laden with the highest hopes is energy storage. To a first approximation, the question of whether renewables will be able to get to 100 percent reduces to the question of whether storage will get cheap enough. With cheap-enough storage, we can add a ton of it to the grid and absorb just about any fluctuations. But how cheap is cheap enough?.... That question is the subject of a fascinating new bit of research out of an MIT lab run by researcher Jessika Trancik .... To spoil the ending: The answer is $20 per kilowatt hour in energy capacity costs. That’s how cheap storage would have to get for renewables to get to 100 percent. That’s around a 90 percent drop from today’s costs. While that is entirely within the realm of the possible, there is wide disagreement over when it might happen; few expect it by 2030.... Here are the gory details:     A cost-optimal wind-solar mix with storage reaches cost-competitiveness with a nuclear fission plant providing baseload electricity at a cost of $0.075/kWh at an energy storage capacity cost of $10-20/kWh. To reach cost- competitiveness with a peaker natural gas plant at $0.077/kWh, energy storage capacity costs must instead fall below $5/kWh (at a storage power capacity cost of $1,000/kW). To provide baseload, intermediate, bipeaker, and peaker electricity at $0.10/kWh with an optimal wind-solar mix, energy storage capacity costs must reach approximately $30–70/kWh, $30v90/kWh, $10–30/kWh, and $10–30/kWh respectively. These are extremely daunting cost targets — not outside the realm of possibility, but well beyond the edge of most mainstream projections. .... the headline $20/kWh cost target for energy storage is almost certainly more stringent than what will be required in the real world. Even the $150/kWh target required for an EAF of 95 percent is likely too stringent. In the real world, storage will be assisted by other forms of grid flexibility like long-distance transmission, load flexibility, and microgrids, along with regulatory and legislative reforms. And renewables will probably continue to get cheaper faster than anyone predicts. So let’s call the target $150-$200, or thereabouts. Can storage hit that?... A 2017 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) contains some intriguing projections.... It expects, by 2030, “a drop in the total installed cost for Li-ion batteries for stationary applications to between USD 145 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) and USD 480/kWh, depending on battery chemistry.”... the materials involved in Li-ion batteries alone are costly enough that they will likely never hit $20/kWh. In the $150 range, though — that’s doable.... How about flow batteries? “The two main flow battery technologies — vanadium redox flow and zinc bromine flow — had total installation costs in 2016 of between USD 315 and USD 1,680/kWh,” IRENA reports. “By 2030, the cost is expected to come down to between USD 108 and USD 576/kWh.”... High-temperature sodium sulphur (NaS) and sodium nickel chloride batteries have been around for a while, but they are also expected to get much cheaper. “Cost reductions of up to 75% could be achieved by 2030, with NaS battery installation cost decreasing to between USD 120 and USD 330/kWh,” says IRENA. “In parallel, the energy installation cost of the sodium nickel chloride high-temperature battery could fall from the current USD 315 to USD 490/kWh to between USD 130 and USD 200/kWh by 2030.” .... Then there are thermal-storage options, like the increasingly popular option of storing electricity as heat in molten salt, with claims of energy capacity costs as low as $50/kWh.... And there is furious work going on around a number of promising new technologies. There is a lot of interest around flow batteries using sulfur, mainly because the materials costs are insanely low — this paper puts them at $1/kWh — which opens the possibility of high-volume storage, even though the energy density may be low and the power itself expensive. One of the authors of that paper, MIT professor Yet-Ming Chiang, co-founded a hot new startup called Form Energy that is explicitly going after long-duration storage. Another startup, Antora, has developed an extremely cheap thermal storage system — it stores energy as heat in inexpensive raw materials and converts it back to electricity with a thermophotovoltaic heat engine — that it claims will come in at under $10/kWh.... Providing all of US power, all day every day, will require oversizing renewables and installing an enormous amount of storage, but if they get cheap enough, that’s what we’ll do. To put that more plainly: A US energy grid run entirely on renewable energy (at least 95 percent of the time), leaning primarily on energy storage to provide grid flexibility, may be more realistic, and closer to hand, than conventional wisdom has it."
Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap?
Vox, 19 August 2019
 
"A quarter of all UK homes and businesses, some 9m buildings, and most of its largest cities outside London sit on former coalfields. Coal mining, which employed 1.25m people at its peak, powered the British economy for well over a century but the last deep mine closed in 2015. One of its underground legacies is the warrens of galleries through which run an estimated 2bn cubic metres of water, heated by surrounding rocks to 12-16 degrees Celsius. At present, minewater is a problem. Often high in iron and pollutants and potentially a threat to drinking water and rivers, its management by the publicly funded Coal Authority cost £18m last year. Yet Lisa Pinney, the authority’s chief executive, said minewater “could be a real contribution to zero carbon”. Opportunities she cited included horticulture, new housing and leisure schemes. According to Coal Authority data, heating currently accounts for 45 per cent of the country’s energy use and 32 per cent of its emissions. Meeting the government’s net zero carbon emissions target will require slashing fossil fuel use. While half of UK electricity supply has been decarbonised, the UK currently relies on natural gas for about 70 per cent of its heat demand, according to minewater heat expert Charlotte Adams, a geologist and assistant professor at Durham university’s energy institute. “Abandoned mines are a large scale opportunity to decarbonise heat,” she said. The Coal Authority, which estimates there is enough geothermal energy in coal mines to heat 180m homes, is preparing a minewater energy “heat map” of Britain."
Minewater touted as an alternative energy solution
Financial Times, 18 August 2019

"Public electric car charging locations now outnumber gas stations in the United Kingdom, according to Nissan. The Japanese automakers report that there are 9,199 EV charging locations in the country, while the number of open gas stations stands at 8,396. The UK's first gas station was opened in Aldermaston, Berkshire, nearly a hundred years ago and reached peak in 1970, with 37,539 open nationwide. The early 2000s saw a decrease as over 3,000 shut down between 2000 and 2005. Meanwhile, EV charging stations have been on the rise. There were 913 charging locations for electric vehicles in the country in 2012, per Autocar's records. And, as of 2018, that number has increased by 6,699. Over 2,000 more were installed this year, while more than 1,600 of the active chargers around the UK offer fast-charging options..... “In less than a century since Britain’s first fuel station opened – November 1919 at Aldermaston in Berkshire – the number of forecourts has peaked, declined and been overtaken by charging stations designed for battery, not combustion powered cars," a statement from Nissan reads (h/t am-online.com). “Almost 80% of UK petrol stations have closed since 1970, whilst the number of electric vehicle charging locations has increased from a few hundred in 2011 (when the Nissan Leaf went on sale) to more than 9,000 in August 2019.”... Many of the charging locations noted in Nissan's list can only charge one vehicle at a time whereas gas stations are usually equipped with several pumps and can fill multiple tanks at any given time."
There Are Now More EV Charging Locations Than Gas Stations In The UK
Hotcars, 17 August 2019

"Households on “100pc renewable” energy tariffs may be getting as little as 3.7pc of their energy from truly green sources. Renewable tariffs are cheaper than ever with the best energy deal on the market currently a green tariff from supplier Outfox the Market.But consumers trying to help the planet through their energy bills may not be getting what they bargained for, according to Tom Harrison of Good Energy, a supplier that buys all its power from renewable sources."
The renewable energy con: how the 'clean' power you buy comes from fossil fuels
Telegraph, 11 August 2019

"Iraqi Oil Ministry on Saturday said its negotiations with U.S. Exxon Mobil over a mega project in southern Iraq are still on track, denying reports that the ministry has ended or excluded the U.S. firm from the strategic oil project. "Not reaching an agreement or signing a contract between the two parties (oil ministry and U.S. firm) does not mean the end of negotiations or exclusion of Exxon Mobil from this project," the ministry said in a statement on its website. The project, also known as Southern Iraq Integrated Project, includes developing two oil fields of Nahr Bin Umar and Artawi, pumping sea water into the oil fields in Iraq, as well as expanding and developing the capacities of storage, transportation and oil export, the statement added. The project also includes building two processing units for associated gas, it said. The statement also denied the information by the reports which claimed that the ministry is concluding a contract with the British BP and Italian Eni to replace or be part of Exxon Mobil. "The ministry denies such news and refuses to manipulate information and facts by some journalists," the statement said. It clarified that the contracts with BP and Eni were signed only for the purpose of supplying materials for two offshore oil pipelines which aimed at ensuring the export of crude oil through the southern export system."

"China’s crude oil imports from Iran sank almost 60% in June from a year earlier, Chinese customs data showed on Saturday, following the end of a waiver on U.S. sanctions at the start of May.Crude shipment from Iran were 855,638 tonnes last month, or 208,205 barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That compared with 254,016 bpd in May. According to Refinitiv Oil Research assessments, a total of 670,000 tonnes, or about 163,000 bpd, of Iranian crude oil was discharged in June at Tianjin in north China and Jinzhou in the northeast. Refinitiv Oil Research also showed another 430,000 tonnes of Iranian crude oil was discharged in July at Jinzhou and Huizhou in south China."
China's Iran oil imports plunge as U.S. sanctions bite
Reuters, 27 July 2019

"The US generated more electricity from renewable sources than coal for the first time ever in April, new federal government data has shown. Clean energy such as solar and wind provided 23% of US electricity generation during the month, compared with coal’s 20%, according to the Energy Information Administration. This represents the first time coal has been surpassed by energy sources that do not release pollution such as planet-heating gases. April was a favorable month for renewables, with low energy demand and an uptick in wind generation. This means that coal may once again pull ahead of renewables again during 2019, although the long-term trends appear to be set."
US generates more electricity from renewables than coal for first time ever
Guardian, 26 July 2019

"Efforts to end fuel poverty and energy waste by making the UK’s draughty homes more efficient have collapsed by almost 85%, according to new government data. The report, published on Thursday, shows that the number of energy efficiency upgrades undertaken each month has fallen to 10,000 on average for the six months to the end of May. This compares with an average of 65,000 a month in 2014. The latest figures show that in May about 10,000 properties benefited from energy efficiency measures, such as loft insulation or boiler upgrades, down sharply from about 30,000 in the same month in 2015 and 2016. At this rate it would take 96 years for the government to reach its own targets to reduce fuel poverty, according to the charity National Energy Action."
UK energy-saving efforts collapse after government subsidy cuts
Guardian, 18 July 2019

"Ghawar is the jewel in Saudi Aramco’s vast production portfolio. Located in the far east of Saudi Arabia, it is 200 kilometres long and 26 km across at its widest point, making it not much smaller than Puerto Rico. It was discovered in 1948, when Aramco was an American operation, and pumped its first oil three years later. Since then, the field has reliably produced five million barrels a day which, back in the 1970s, represented fully 10 per cent of global oil demand. Demand has almost doubled since then. Still, that one field supplies a hefty 5 per cent of global output. Or so we thought. In fact, Ghawar is not as resilient as we were led to believe. We just found out that its output has fallen substantially since Aramco previously came clean on its reserves and production. If Ghawar is losing momentum fast, peak oil – remember that theory? – might be closer than we had thought. And Ghawar is just one of dozens of enormous conventional-oil reservoirs scattered around the planet that are in various stages of decline. Aramco is state-owned and notoriously secretive, making its true size, pumping power and financial strength a guessing game that has obsessed oil traders and analysts forever. But Aramco lifted its veil somewhat this week, when it published a 470-page debt prospectus. The company is raising debt to help fund its US$69-billion purchase of Sabic, the Saudi chemicals giant. Other than confirming that Aramco is the world’s most profitable company by a long shot – net income last year was US$111.1-billion – there was a curious item on page 88: Ghawar’s maximum production capacity was 3.8 million barrels a day last year. As far as anyone can tell, the last official public document on Ghawar’s production was published in 2004, when two senior Aramco executives gave a presentation on global oil-supply scenarios at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Their slides showed that Ghawar produced about five million barrels a day between 1993 and 2003 – a quarter greater than last year’s figure. The slides also revealed that “peripheral water injection” began in 1965. Water injection is used to boost reservoir pressure as more and more oil is pumped out. As reservoirs get old, more water is pumped in. This appears to be the case with Ghawar. In 1993, its water “cut,” was about 25 per cent. A decade later, it was 33 per cent. The latter figure means that for every three barrels of fluid that were brought to the surface, two were oil and one was water. The Aramco prospectus does not say what Ghawar’s water cut is today, but it’s probably higher than it was in 2003. On paper, Ghawar looks like it can go for a good, long time – the prospectus lists its liquid reserves at 48.2 billion barrels. The figure suggests that, at current maximum production rates, Ghawar has three or four more decades of puff left in its aging body. But typically, conventional reservoirs go into steady, and often fairly sharp, decline after about 50 per cent is produced. Advances in recovery technology can slow that decline somewhat. But the Aramco prospectus doesn’t say either why Ghawar’s production has dropped so much since the last decade, or what percentage of its reserves are depleted. So we really have no idea how long it can keep pumping 3.8 million barrels a day. All Aramco will say is that more than 80 per cent of its reservoirs are less than 40 per cent depleted. But 20 per cent of them are half gone already. Is one of them Ghawar? Ghawar’s slowdown, coupled with the measured fall-off in many other huge finds – from the North Sea to Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay – are sending out powerful messages that the U.S. shale boom might not be enough to offset the relentless decline in conventional production. Take Mexico’s Cantarell reservoir. In 2004, it was spewing out 2.1 million barrels a day, making it enormous even by Saudi standards. Today, its daily output is only 135,000 barrels and Mexico has become a net oil importer for the first time in half a century. Ghawar’s slowdown inevitably brings back memories of the peak-oil theory, which said that we had reached the point of maximum oil production and that the economic consequences of running the world on ever less oil would be grave. One of the biggest proponents of the theory was the late Matthew Simmons, the U.S. investment banker whose 2005 book, Twilight in the Desert, argued that Saudi Arabia in general and Ghawar in particular were less robust that advertised. In his book launch speech, he said the crucial Saudi oil supplies “were coming from only a handful of overworked, aging fields that were all at risk of a sudden production collapse.” Mr. Simmons’s peak-oil warnings proved wrong. He failed to anticipate the U.S. shale oil revolution. The Permian shale basin in the U.S. Southwest alone produces 4.1 million barrels a day, turning the United States into a powerhouse of the unconventional-oil variety. But he might not have been wrong about Ghawar. Its production is far less than we had known and if it does collapse, peak oil will come a bit sooner."
Is peak oil closer than we think? Saudi Aramco reveals a troubling fact about the world’s biggest oil field
Globe and Mail, 5 April 2019

"Not that long ago, California was the second most vital U.S. oil producing state. Since peaking in 1985, however, output has plunged almost 60 percent to 460,000 barrels per day (bpd).  This collapse is made even more discouraging by the fact that total U.S. crude oil production has been soaring to record heights, up 140 percent to 12.1 million bpd over the past decade. Indeed, the shale revolution that has transformed the U.S. oil and gas industry has completely passed California by. Since 2008, while U.S. crude oil reserves have more than doubled to 45 billion barrels, California’s reserves have declined 25 percent to 2.2 billion barrels in the shale-era. The most troubling part for California is that the state still uses a lot of oil. California each day devours around 40 million gallons of gasoline, uses 8 million gallons of diesel fuel, and accounts for 20 percent of all U.S. jet fuel consumption. Although the state is surely a global leader on renewables, wind and solar are strictly sources of electricity and do not really displace the need for petroleum, a designed transportation fuel. For every passenger vehicle in California today that runs on electricity there are about 70 that run on oil. Even reaching the ambitious goal of 5 million plug-ins by 2030 would mean less than 15 percent of the state’s cars running on electricity. The inevitable result of plummeting production amid high consumption is that California is forced to import 70 percent of the oil that it needs. ... For its own part, California does have the Monterey shale formation in the central and southern part of the state. The play could hold at least 20 billion barrels of recoverable oil and untold amounts of natural gas. Current Governor Gavin Newsom, however, is not supportive of development like his predecessor Jerry Brown was. Although there are geological issues in the Monterey that make it a difficult play to exploit, many of those differences could be overcome with capital and by deploying the constantly evolving technology that the U.S. shale industry enjoys. The real problem is that California’s regulatory and tax policies discourage new oil production in the state...... But overall, missing out on the shale revolution for California might be worse on the natural gas side. Gas is still the main source of power in the state, even accounting for over half of generation in recent years. California’s need to import 95 percent of its gas supply is a growing problem because other U.S. states, particularly Western neighbors, are increasingly moving toward more gas to meet rising demand while also lowering greenhouse gas emissions."
California's Oil Industry Collapses Despite Shale Boom
Rigzone, 3 April 2019

"Utilities across Europe are enjoying a windfall, as a gas glut caused by excess liquefied natural gas shipments from Asia drives prices to multi-year lows. A mild Asian winter coupled with nuclear-plant restarts in Japan and ample supplies from the US and Russia have cut down deliveries of LNG to large buyers in the region. As prices for the supercooled fuel have fallen, hitting a three-year low, cargoes have been directed instead to Europe. That is pushing down prices there, too: the UK wholesale day-ahead gas price, for example, is trading just above 31p per therm, the lowest seasonal level since 2016 and below a 5-year average of 46p per therm. The price moves show how gas markets around the world have become more connected thanks to increasing volumes of LNG cargoes moving the gas from one continent to another, freed from an old regime of rigid contracts with fixed destinations. “In the future, gas prices in Europe will be driven by LNG,” said Niall Trimble, managing director of oil and gas consultants The Energy Contract Company. LNG will also gain greater influence on European and UK gas markets as volumes from the region’s production areas in the North Sea, Netherlands and Norway decline. The UK became a net importer of natural gas in the mid-2000s as North Sea production fell. The UK is among the leading destinations for LNG cargoes thanks to plentiful terminal storage capacity. The amount of LNG used in the UK gas pipeline system quadrupled in the fourth quarter of 2018 from the previous year and jumped 4.5 times in the first quarter of this year. Asia and Europe are the two main LNG importing regions, and until recently, robust demand from China, South Korea and Japan have kept the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), the Asian benchmark, higher than the European equivalent. Sam Laidlaw, a former chief executive of Centrica, the gas and electricity company, who now leads the private equity-backed Neptune Energy, said he expected the drop in gas prices to be a “short-term phenomenon” as demand picks back up in Asia. He said any resolution of the trade spat between Washington and Beijing would likely see more oil and LNG flow from the US to Asia, tightening supplies available to Europe. National Grid, which plays a role in ensuring UK energy supply matches demand, said in a recent report that it was expecting much higher deliveries of LNG this summer than in 2018. This was because LNG shipping costs had risen over the winter, making Europe, which is a closer destination, a more profitable market than Asia for cargoes from the US and Russia. However, some analysts said that the weakness in the Asian price was encouraging some producers to shut down their facilities for maintenance."
Gas supply glut in Europe drives prices to multiyear lows
Financial Times, 3 April 2019

"Saudi Aramco’s Ghawar field, the largest oilfield in the world, had 58 billion barrels of oil equivalent in combined reserves at the end of 2018, and 48.3 billion in liquid reserves, the company said in its bond prospectus on Monday."
Aramco's Ghawar field had 58 bln barrels of oil equivalent end-2018 - prospectus
Reuters, 1 April 2019

"The European Union's use of renewable energy -- such as hydropower, wind and solar -- reached 17.5 percent in 2017, keeping it on track for a target of 20 percent by 2020. Each member state has its own renewable energy goal, based on its situation and potential, ranging from 10 to 49 percent. While 11 countries in the bloc have already surpassed their targets, others are lagging behind, according to EU statistics authority Eurostat. With the target for 2030 at 32 percent, Eurostat says: "While the EU as a whole is on course to meet its 2020 targets, some member states will need to make additional efforts to meet their obligations." Europe's renewable energy leaders are Nordic countries: Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Since 2012 more than half of the total energy consumed in Sweden has come from renewable sources, according to the International Energy Agency. This is due in large part to hydroelectric power, which provides more than 40 percent of the country's electricity output. Swedes heat themselves mainly with biofuels. Denmark -- a small, flat country long dependent on energy imports -- now gets 43 percent of its electricity from wind power after investment starting in the late 1970s when it began phasing out coal plants. Luxembourg and the Netherlands are the EU countries with the lowest consumption of renewables, reaching 6.4 percent and 6.6 percent respectively. Despite its investment in offshore wind farms, the Netherlands is the furthest from reaching its targets. Yet, with a part of the country lying below sea level, it is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change."
How Europe is faring on renewable energy targets
AFP, 31 March 2019

"Production of the so-called shale, or tight oil, will continue to increase through 2030 and reach more than 10 million barrels per day in the early 2030s, the Energy Information Administration said. "EIA projects further U.S. tight oil production growth as the industry continues to improve drilling efficiencies and reduce costs, which makes developing tight oil resources less sensitive to oil prices than in the past," according to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2019.Tight oil, or shale oil, production refers to extraction of crude oil contained in low-permeability formations that, thanks to technological advances, started to be tapped resulting in soaring production in the United States and becoming in 2015 the more common form of oil production. Shale oil production reached 6.5 million barrels per day in the United States in 2018, accounting for 61% of total U.S. production.Most of the increase in recent years in crude oil production in the United States is related to the development of the Permian Basin in western Texas and eastern New Mexico. "Three major tight oil plays in the Permian Basin -- the Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp -- accounted for 41 percent of U.S. tight oil production in 2018," and they will remain very important in coming decades potentially representing half of the cumulative tight oil production in the next 30 years, the EIA said. Bakken and Eagle Ford also remain major contributors to U.S. tight oil, and accounted for 19 percent and 17 percent of crude oil production in 2018. Eagle Ford is in Texas, while the Bakken occupies parts of Montana, North Dakota and Canada....The EIA worked on two alternative cases in which technology and resource assumptions are modified. In one optimistic technology, lower-cost scenario, total U.S. oil production in 2050 is nearly 19 million barrels per day. In the less optimistic scenario total U.S. oil production in 2050 falls to about 8 million barrels per day, it said. The EIA also contemplated the impact that international oil prices could have, and evaluated scenarios contemplating a high as well as a low oil price. In the high oil price scenario, in which oil hits $100 per barrel in 2019 and rises to $208 (in 2018 dollars), that would lead to a peak of 18 million barrels per day by 2024 before declining to 13 million barrels per day in 2050. EIA reports that conventional oil production in the United States during the period covered appears relatively steady at 4 million barrels per day for nearly all of the period. In the low oil price case scenario, which contemplates an average price under $50 per barrel through 2050, total domestic production would increase to nearly 13 million barrels per day in 2022, before declining through the rest of the period. According to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, hydraulic fracturing has been utilized for more than 60 years and has been "safely and effectively applied" to well over a million oil and gas wells in the United States alone.Hydraulic fracking, which injects water mixed with chemicals to penetrate shale formations, is controversial. There are more than 700 studies that have focused on potential risks, with a high number of them showing risks or actual harms, Forbes reported. New York, Vermont and Maryland, which has proven gas reserves, have laws banning fracking."
EIA: U.S. shale output to keep rising until peak after 2030
UPI, 29 March 2019

"Global energy demand grew at its fastest pace in the last decade in 2018, increasing CO2 emissions to a record high, according to a new report. Worldwide energy demand grew by 2.3 percent last year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest Global Energy & CO2 Status Report. That high demand, “driven by a robust global economy and stronger heating and cooling needs in some regions,” also prompted a 1.7 percent increase in CO2 emissions to a new high of 33 Gigatonnes. Demand for all fuels increased across the board, but especially natural gas, which accounted for 45 percent of the rise in energy consumption and was especially strong in China and the U.S. “China, India, and the United States accounted for 85 percent of the net increase in emissions, while emissions declined for Germany, Japan, Mexico, France and the United Kingdom,” the report noted. Coal’s share in global energy continues to decline, and yet, overall demand increased again in 2018. Coal CO2 emissions surpassed 10 Gt in 2018 through power use alone. Asia — especially China — is the driving force behind that growth.... The IEA release calls electricity the “fuel” of the future, and notes global demand increased 4 percent in 2018, outpacing overall energy demand. Electricity is nearing a 20 percent share in total final consumption of energy. This rapid growth is pushing electricity towards a 20% share in total final consumption of energy. Despite the increase in fossil fuel use, renewables also played a large role in meeting energy demand. Renewables increased by 4 percent in 2018, making up nearly a quarter of demand growth. Renewable-based electricity generation also reached its fastest pace within the decade, covering nearly 45 percent of the world’s overall growth. Solar, wind, and hydropower ranked 1-2-3, with the sources making up nearly a third of that growth. Most of the rest was attributed to bioenergy.  The IEA says renewable use “needs to expand much more quickly” to meet the agency’s own scenario for sustainability, from one-quarter of power from renewables today to two-thirds by 2040. "
Global energy demand at highest growth in a decade, emissions reach record high in 2018
Electrek, 27 March 2019

"THE cost to the UK taxpayer of decommissioning oil and gas assets could be much higher than the £24 billion official estimate, MPs have warned in an assessment that could stoke concern about the outlook for the public finances. Public Accounts Committee (PAC) members have highlighted significant uncertainty over the cost to taxpayers of decommissioning offshore oil and gas assets in a report published today. Their report also sounds the alarm about the potential cost of decommissioning assets used in fracking for oil and gas. It complains about a “worrying lack of understanding” in Whitehall about the practicalities involved. The findings will make challenging reading for ministers amid concern the UK could fail to capitalise on opportunities that will be created as firms grapple with the challenges posed by decommissioning as fields run dry in coming decades."
North Sea oil and gas clean up cost concerns highlighted by MPs
The Herald, 27 March 2019

"Equinor, the Norwegian oil-and-gas giant formerly known as Statoil, will announce today that it plans to pour money into an approximately $180 million investment fund focused on battery and related technologies, Fortune has learned. That tech is intended to spread the use of renewables by allowing them to be stored in ways that make economic sense.... Equinor’s announcement comes less than three weeks after Norway’s government said the country’s sovereign-wealth fund, the world’s largest, would sell off holdings in oil-and-gas exploration and production companies. Norway’s finance minister, Siv Jensen, said the Government Pension Fund Global, which manages about $1 trillion in assets, would take the step to shield Norway’s treasury from risk from oil-price declines."
Norway's State-Run Oil and Gas Giant Is Backing a Battery-Research Fund
Fortune, 26 March 2019

"U.S. natural gas consumption increased by 10% in 2018, reaching a record high of 82.1 Bcfd, according to EIA’s recently released Natural Gas Monthly. Domestic consumption of natural gas increased across all sectors in 2018, led by a 3.8 Bcfd increase in the electric power sector caused by a combination of recent natural gas-fired electric capacity additions and weather-related factors. The electric power sector consumed 29.1 Bcfd in 2018, or 35% of total domestic U.S. natural gas consumption. Natural gas continued to make up the highest share of utility-scale electricity generation after first surpassing coal-fired generation on an annual basis in 2016. Specifically, natural gas accounted for one-third (35%) of utility-scale electricity generation in 2018, followed by coal (27%), nuclear (19%), and hydropower (7%). New natural gas generator capacity additions continued to displace coal-fired power plants and other less efficient sources of electricity. In 2018, about 14.5 gigawatts (GW) of net natural gas capacity were added, while almost 13 GW of coal-fired capacity were retired."
EIA: Power sector pushed domestic U.S. natural gas consumption to new record in 2018
World Oil, 25 March 2019

"Trade body Oil and Gas UK (OGUK) has estimated that £200bn is needed to improve ageing North Sea oil and gas infrastructure over the coming 16 years.  OGUK’s Business 2019 Outlook  warns that the UK North Sea oil and gas industry faces “fundamental challenges” and that a huge amount of private investment is needed between now and 2035. Challenges facing the industry include increasing pressure to cut carbon emissions, a factor currently acting as a catalyst for the renewables market. IN all £100bn is needed to support ongoing extraction and processing. A further £30bn is needed to support companies already at work extracting of 2.5bn barrels of oil from new sites. Of the £200bn total, £40bn, must be spent on fresh exploration of the North Sea and installation of new infrastructure to extract 2.4bn barrels of oil from sites not already under consideration. Another £25bn is needed for decommissioning ageing assets and there is a suggestion that retired gas and oil pipelines could be turned into carbon capture systems."
Calls for £200bn North Sea oil and gas upgrade
New Civil Engineer, 21 March 2019

"Oil trader and tanker charterer Vitol announced its 2018 results which reported 1.5M more barrels a day of crude oil were traded compared to five years ago.... In a stark warning to shareholders, the company anticipated that oil demand will continue to grow for the next 15 years, even with a marked increase in the sales of electric vehicles, but that demand growth will begin to be impacted thereafter. It is investing in alternate energy sources including low carbon, a joint venture with VLC Energy which constructed the UK’s largest battery pack and is also investing in renewable energy assets across Europe."
Tanker charterer Vitol warns oil peak is just 15 years away
Tanker Shipping & Trade, 20 March 2019

"The Trump administration’s pro-drilling policy took a blow when a federal judge ordered a halt to oil and gas exploration on more than 300,000 acres in Wyoming, saying the government must account for its cumulative effect on global climate change. The ruling came in a lawsuit filed by a pair of environmental conservation groups against the Obama administration in 2016, challenging the Bureau of Land Management’s decision to lease federal lands for energy development in Wyoming, Utah and Colorado. It stressed the difference between assessing environmental impacts in isolation and measuring their collective impact.... While the judge faulted the federal government for merely summarizing the potential impacts without elaborating on the degree to which its decisions might contribute to climate change, he stopped short of voiding the Wyoming leases at issue. Instead, he ordered the bureau to re-examine nine of its environmental assessments and its “no significant impact” findings and barred the BLM from authorizing new drilling in the state until it satisfies its environmental-law obligations."
U.S. Ordered to Halt Oil, Gas Drilling in Swath of Wyoming
Bloomberg, 20 March 2019

""The International Energy Agency sees no peak in oil demand and expects the United States will drive global oil supply growth over the next five years, according to its most recent annual oil market forecast, published Monday. “These are extraordinary times for the oil industry as geopolitics become a bigger factor in the markets and the global economy is slowing down,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Everywhere we look, new actors are emerging and past certainties are fading. This is the case in both the upstream and the downstream sector. And it’s particularly true for the United States, by far the stand-out champion of global supply growth.”.... According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States now accounts for 70% of the total increase in global oil capacity out to 2024, adding a total of 4 million barrels per day (mb/d), following “spectacular” growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2018. “The second wave of the US shale revolution is coming,” said Dr Birol. “It will see the United States account for 70% of the rise in global oil production and some 75% of the expansion in LNG trade over the next five years.  This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy.” In addition to the United States, the IEA forecasts growth among other non-OPEC producers as well, including Brazil, Norway, and new producer Guyana. Iraq will reinforce itself as one of the world’s top oil producers as the world’s third-largest source of new supply, compensating for losses from Iran and Venezuela, as well as the still-fragile situation in Libya. The IEA also expects upstream investment to increase in 2019 for the third year in a row. Further, for the first time since the industry’s downturn in 2015, investment in conventional assets could increase faster than for the shale industry this year. It’s worth noting, however, that the IEA’s growth forecasts have been paired with pleas for further investment “to ensure adequate spare production capacity.” For the IEA, “it is therefore reassuring that 2019 upstream investment is set to rise for the third straight year, according to preliminary plans announced by key oil and gas companies.” Conversely, the IEA believes that the oil industry’s downstream sector is “on the eve of one of the biggest shakeups ever” in advance of the implementation of the International Maritime Organisation’s new rules governing bunker fuel quality in 2020. There have been concerns over the past few years that the shipping and refining industries, despite several years notice, might encounter shortfalls when the new rules come into effect, however, the IEA’s updated analysis predicts industry players will be in a strong position to comply across the medium term. Even more troubling, however, than the IEA’s predicted demand and investment growth is its contention that it “continues to see no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the United States and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars.” According to the IEA — and in the face of “Ongoing trade disputes between major powers and a disorderly Brexit” and acknowledging that “the economic mood is not encouraging” — oil demand is still expected to grow according to its most recent forecast, “although at a more measured pace. The IEA points to the fact that “leading developing economies will continue to expand” as the reason for its prediction oil demand will continue to grow. “China and India will account for 44% of the 7.1 mb/d growth in global demand expected to 2024,” wrote the authors of the Oil 2019 Analysis and forecasts to 2024 report. “Despite its recent slowdown, China’s GDP has more than doubled in real terms in the past decade and is still growing at a healthy clip. Income levels have grown sharply and the structure of oil demand is moving away from heavy industrial sectors towards consumer needs. As for India, while its GDP per capita is still only a fifth of China’s, it is growing more strongly: By 2024, India’s oil demand growth will match China.” However, the IEA’s fossil fuel and energy forecasts have repeatedly underappreciated and underrepresented on-the-ground events and policies which have been shaping energy demand over the past decade....  global quality assurance and risk management company DNV GL, which in September of 2018 published its Energy Transition Outlook 2018 and which predicted oil will peak in 2023. “Like the IEA, DNV GL also sees continued growth in oil use through to the early 2020s,” said Bent Erik Bakken, Deputy Programme Director of the Energy Transition Outlook of DNV GL, who spoke to me via email. “The IEA annual oil forecast stops in 2024. But other IEA publications go further, and its NPS projection to 2040 sees continued growth in oil demand.” “Unlike the IEA, we forecast that demand will level off in the early 2020s, and, from 2028, oil use will start a steady decline,” Bakken continued. “This is related to slowing global growth, but also to the inexorable electrification of the world’s fleet of road vehicles. That really starts to take off once light EVs reach strict cost parity with their internal combustion counterparts in 2024. Other factors to consider are the rise of biofuels and, longer term, the use of hydrogen fuel cell technology for long distance heavy goods transport. Moreover, we do not see petrochemicals as a life raft for the oil industry once demand for oil in transport starts to wane. The world’s war on plastic will see the markets for plastic will grow more slowly than GDP.”"
International Energy Agency Sees No Peak Oil In Sight, US To Lead Oil Supply Growth
Clean Technica, 14 March 2019

"As if stuck in a partially clogged drain, oil from the hottest U.S. shale play has been caught in a bottleneck due to a lack of pipeline capacity. But the transportation tie-up at the Permian Basin is about to ease up, and a new network of pipelines will help U.S. producers unleash more crude into the Gulf Coast and then onto the world market. "There's a lot of shale capacity being prepared. There's a lot of pipeline capacity. We're going to triple pipelines going into the market from 3 to 9 million in three years, from last year to late 2021," said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Much needed pipeline capacity is being added to take Permian crude from the heart of Texas down to the Gulf Coast, to oil refineries but also to Texas ports that are making plans for more and larger ships to carry oil exports from the U.S. to customers in Asia and elsewhere. The Permian Basin covers an area of more than 75,000 square miles in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.Citigroup energy analyst Eric Lee said Permian output at just under 4 million barrels a day is up about 1 million barrels from a year ago and should be a million more, or 5 million a day, a year from now, in early 2020. The Permian has benefited from consistent improvements in technology, which increasingly have been capable of extracting more oil from the shale formation.  "We're happy to look out to 2023, when it gets to 8 million. ... They figured out how to access it at very low break-evens, like $30/$40. ... There are more layers below it. It's hard to know what those are going to mean, break-even-wise," said Lee. His estimates depend on the price of crude and world oil demand. Breakeven is the price a producer of a barrel of oil needs to recover expenses, or where a producer breaks even. As Permian and other production has grown, so have U.S. exports of crude, allowed by a change in law in late 2015. In one week in the past month, exports reached a record 3.6 million barrels a day, according to U.S. government data. Last week, 2.8 million barrels a day were exported, and the four-week average was about 3 million barrels. The U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world, pumping 12.1 million barrels a day, according to Energy Information Administration data. "Every incremental barrel that the United States produces will be exported. We're in a situation, of course, where the quality of what we produce is actually higher than what we need," said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president, North American Unconventional at IHS Markit. "U.S. refineries, which turn crude oil into the products we use, were designed to turn cheap crude oil into high quality and upgrade it into the fuels we use."The Permian and other U.S. shale basins produce light sweet crude, while the Gulf Coast refineries were built for heavy crudes, like those from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico. With Venezuela under sanctions, there is less available heavy crude, but analysts say so far the refineries are able to find enough but at a higher price differential. "We like to say we're exporting champagne and importing beer," said LeBlanc. The U.S., in the past week, imported 7 million barrels a day. Twice in the past several months, weekly data showed the U.S. to be a net exporter of crude and refined products. "The growth estimates [for the Permian] just kept getting bigger and bigger. They didn't' know what they didn't know," said CFRA energy equity analyst Stewart Glickman. "You do have to be cognizant of the fact that these wells decline very quickly. Between year one and year two there's a pretty big dropoff. You have to drill more well in order to expand. It really depends on whether technological innovations can keep pace with that. For everyone to double in five years might be a stretch. I'm not saying it can't be done," Glickman said. U.S. crude in the Permian is increasingly being drilled by the oil majors....This past week, both Chevron and Exxon announced plans to bump up production significantly in the Permian. Occidental Petroleum and British Petroleum are also active there.... Lee said the expansion of pipelines to the point where they will now provide surplus capacity is typical of the industry. "Once you get to the first quarter of 2020, almost certainly the Permian will be fully de-bottlenecked for now," he said."
This Texas area is expected to double oil output to 8 million barrels in just four years, boosting US exports
CNBC, 8 March 2019

"A new government deal with industry could see nearly a third of British electricity generated by offshore wind farms by 2030.  If successful, officials say the plan would see more electricity being generated by renewables than fossil fuels for the first time in UK history, with 70 per cent coming from low-carbon sources. Currently offshore wind provides just 7 per cent of British power, but this would be boosted to 30 per cent by the end of the next decade. Not everyone is convinced by the announcement, with some environmentalists warning renewables would have to be scaled up even further as the nation’s nuclear ambitions floundered. According to the government, its promised green power “revolution” would bring 27,000 jobs to the energy sector." ... The deal will increase the involvement of UK companies in offshore wind projects to 60 per cent, ensuring the £557m the government has pledged in state subsidies benefits local communities. This will be accompanied by a £250m investment from industry, which will help ensure British companies are world-leaders in new areas such as robotics, floating wind farms and larger turbines.Alongside the deal, the government will provide more than £4m for British businesses to help countries such as Indonesia and Pakistan move from coal power to offshore wind projects. There will also be more efforts to reduce the cost of offshore wind projects - which have already been halved in the past two years - to help move to a subsidy-free system. The Crown Estate will be releasing new seabed land from 2019 for future offshore wind projects."
Renewable energy to replace fossil fuels as UK's main power source for first time in history, government says
Independent, 7 March 2019

"The country that’s driven global oil demand since the turn of the century may hit the brakes sooner than expected as travelers shift toward electric cars or even forgo the open road in favor of trains. China’s oil consumption will peak in 2025, five to eight years earlier than market consensus, according to Morgan Stanley analysts including Andy Meng. The reversal will be driven by a transportation model unique to China: While most countries moving up the economic ladder show continued growth in oil demand from increased driving, mass-adoption of electric vehicles and high-speed rail in China will drastically reduce gasoline use, the bank said. If the theory plays out, it could signal a huge shift for the oil market, which has relied on China for more than a third of global demand growth since 1999. An expanding body of research is painting a bleak future for oil, as rapid adoption of electric vehicles could mean global demand peaks by the 2030s, according to Bank of America Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, a prospect that’s likely to worry energy executives and investors. “China will no longer be the growth driver of global crude demand,” Meng said in a March 5 report. “We believe the refiners and petroleum stations are the largest potential losers, while the battery companies are likely to become the key winners.” To be sure, some of the industry’s top prognosticators expect the country’s oil demand to keep growing for years, albeit at a slower pace. The International Energy Agency sees China crude consumption expanding through 2040, while the nation’s largest energy producer China National Petroleum Corp. has forecast that gasoline use will peak five years before oil demand does in 2030. China’s electric vehicle penetration will reach 6.4 percent by the end of the decade and keep rising to 80 percent by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley, adding that an aggressive push by local battery companies into technology innovation may speed up that timeline. Meanwhile the country is seeing solid growth in high-speed rail ridership, driven by a well-developed network and severe traffic congestion. Highways’ share of passenger turnover fell to 27 percent last year from 55 percent in 2012. In the U.S., the figure was 87 percent last year, according to Morgan Stanley."
China Oil Use Seen Peaking in 2025
Bloomberg, 7 March 2019

"The Swedish company Climeon claims it can make geothermal power as accessible as wind and solar. Its technology can make use of low-temperature heat, which opens up economically viable geothermal power to much more of the world. And Climeon now seems poised to scale up beyond the five countries it operates in today, after the Bill Gates-backed fund Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV) said on March 6 that it will provide $12.5 million in funding.The price of electricity produced using Climeon’s technology varies based on factors like the size of the project and access to the heat source. In some cases, Climeon’s electricity-generating units have provided electricity for €40 ($45) per MWh, according to Joachim Karthäuser, the company’s chief technology officer. For context, that’s about the low end of costs for wind or solar power in Europe. Climeon can offer such low prices because it provides its solution in a modular form. Each unit is approximately 8 cubic meters (about 280 cubic ft) and can provide about 150 kW of power, enough to power 150 European homes continuously. Depending on the customer’s use, Climeon simply installs more or less units. Each unit contains heat exchangers, which transfer heat from underneath the earth, and convert that energy to turn a custom-designed turbine that generates electricity. The term “geothermal” refers to drawing heat from underneath the Earth. But Climeon’s units can use heat from other sources, too. For example, the units have been deployed in steel factories, where water used for cooling hot metal is otherwise cooled and discarded. At about 90°C (194°F), however, it is hot enough to power Climeon’s technology. That’s a big deal, because Climeon’s technology creates a revenue source for these industries that didn’t previously exist, cuts the total energy consumed, and also reduces total emissions."
Swedish technology could make geothermal as mainstream as wind and solar
Quartz, 6 March 2019

"There’s enough as-yet-unassigned oil under the Atlantic Ocean off Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro to keep the entire world running for almost six months. So why is the crude just sitting there? A contract dispute between oil giant Petrobras and the government has been dragging on since 2013, and until it’s resolved, drillers can’t start targeting those deep-water deposits.... Petrobras’ initial exploration at what’s known as the pre-salt fields uncovered a lot more oil than expected -- an estimated 6 billion to 15 billion “surplus” barrels on top of the 5 billion that Petrobras has the rights to produce. (For comparison’s sake, the world consumes about 36 billion barrels of oil in a year.) The government plans to hold an auction for these areas to raise tens of billions of dollars -- but it needs to conclude the contract review with Petrobras first. Bidding rounds for pre-salt fields outside of the Transfer of Rights area haven’t been affected and have drawn interest from international oil majors including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.... Production from the pre-salt is already making Brazil one of the fastest-growing oil producers that’s not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That means Brazil will become an ever-larger headache for OPEC as it tries to balance the global market. Brazil has already surpassed Mexico and Venezuela to become the largest Latin American oil producer, pumping almost as much as OPEC members Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. Growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years as Petrobras and other producers install additional production vessels at pre-salt fields.... Brazil’s pre-salt is the biggest group of conventional oil discoveries this century. The biggest field, Mero (formerly Libra), holds an estimated 8 to 12 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. The entire region probably holds more than 100 billion barrels of recoverable oil, according to an academic study. The Transfer of Rights area is just one 3,865-square-kilometer section of the pre-salt, and Petrobras is already producing oil there from the Buzios field. Production from the pre-salt has surged from nothing 10 years ago to more than half of Brazil’s total output, at 1.5 million barrels a day. While it is expensive to explore and develop these remote fields deep in the Atlantic, production per well is higher than at other deep-water regions such as the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea, making them extremely profitable. The break-even oil price for the Mero field is $35 a barrel, according to Petrobras."
Why Billions of Barrels of Oil Go Untapped in Brazil
Bloomberg, 3 March 2019

"Policy-driven gas demand is growing so fast in China that production and imports are struggling to keep up. The squeeze will ease when Russia's almost-complete Power of Siberia pipeline starts up, but bullish forecasts have reignited interest in a second Russia-China pipeline. Towards the end of this year, on 20 December, Russian and Chinese dignitaries will gather to celebrate the start-up of the Power of Siberia pipeline—the centrepiece of a $55bn natural gas development programme that will eventually deliver 38bn cm/yr of Russian gas to the world's fastest-growing market. The date was agreed back in July 2017 by Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), signalling their determination to implement in timely fashion a project of major importance to both countries. Russia has long depended on pipeline exports westwards to Europe for its gas revenues and craved the creation of new pipeline gas markets in Asia. As long ago as the mid-1990s, the then head of Gazprom, Rem Vyakhirev, was proclaiming the newly-formed company's eastwards ambitions. A quarter of a century later, it will be on Alexey Miller's watch that these ambitions are fulfilled. The Power of Siberia project, the backbone of Gazprom's Eastern Gas Programme, is an immense undertaking-Russia's largest energy project since the fall of the Soviet Union. Along with the 3,000km pipeline that runs from gasfields in eastern Siberia to the city of Blagoveshchensk on the border with north-eastern China—the so-called "eastern route"—the scope involves the development of two huge gas resources: the 1.4tr-cm Chayandinskoye field in Yakutia and the 2.7tr-cm Kovyktinskoye field in Irkutsk. Close to the border with China , Gazprom is constructing what will be the largest gas-processing plant in Russia, the Amur plant, which will have processing capacity of 42bn cm/yr. Gas will be delivered under the terms of Russia's largest-ever sales and purchase agreement, signed by Gazprom and CNPC in May 2014. Specifying the supply of 38bn cm/yr over a period of 30 years, it was considered at the time to be worth $400bn. For China, the start-up of the Power of Siberia pipeline cannot happen too soon. Since President Xi Jinping assumed office in 2013, the nation has been vigorously implementing policies to ease the appalling air pollution in its cities and, more recently, to keep to its climate change action pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement. At the heart of these policies is a switch from coal to natural gas, in heating and electricity generation.... The impact on the nation's demand for natural gas has been astonishing—and unprecedented. Consumption in 2017 was 240bn cm, up from 195bn cm in 2015, a rise of 23%. Imports have skyrocketed. According to customs data, LNG imports doubled between 2015 and 2017, to 38mn t. Moreover, imports during the first 11 months of 2018 were 44% up on the same period in 2017. If that growth rate continues into December, imports in 2018 will reach 55mn t (75bn cm). Pipeline gas imports more than doubled between 2015 and 2017, to 42bn cm. Imports during the first 11 months of 2018 were up 22% on the same period in 2017. If that growth rate continues into December, imports in 2018 will reach 51bn cm. With combined imports set to reach 126bn cm, it is no surprise that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting China will become the world's largest importer of natural gas in 2019. China imports pipeline gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through the three strands (A, B and C) of the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline. However, these three lines are approaching capacity and construction of a fourth strand, Line D, has been postponed indefinitely. Smaller volumes are imported via a pipeline from Myanmar. So, start-up of the Power Siberia pipeline will bring welcome relief, though ramp-up will be gradual, partly because China is still working on the construction of the pipeline network that will distribute Russian gas to markets within the country.... During the years of protracted negotiations that led to the 2014 agreement for Power of Siberia gas, Russia and China were discussing two possible routes: the eastern route now under construction; and a "western route" that would bring gas from fields in western Siberia into China via the short stretch of border that exists between Kazakhstan and Mongolia. China argued strongly for the eastern route, because the entry point is close to large demand centres, notably around the cities of Beijing and Tianjin, and eventually got its way. However, discussions continued for deliveries via the western route-also known as Power of Siberia 2, or the Altai pipeline-and a heads of agreement for 30bn cm/yr of gas was signed in 2015. For a while after that, the Power of Siberia 2 concept seemed to be making little headway and stopped appearing on some of Gazprom's maps. Last year was something of a turning point. With completion of the first Power of Siberia pipeline in sight, and the scale of China's gas demand growth becoming ever more apparent, the concept seems to be enjoying a revival. "Intensification of negotiations on the western route" was an agenda item at a meeting between Alexey Miller and Han Zheng, vice-premier of China's State Council, that took place in Moscow in September last year. In the same month, Power of Siberia 2 was a topic for discussion at the Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum, an annual conference established by President Vladimir Putin, and attended for the first time by Xi Jinping. At best, a fully-fledged agreement on Power of Siberia 2 remains years away, given the various obstacles that would first have to be cleared away. For example, the proposed pipeline route goes through mountainous territory, some of which consists of UNESCO world heritage sites. There have been suggestions that the pipeline might be routed instead through Mongolia, but this would require negotiations on issues such as transit fees. From China's viewpoint, gas would be entering the country through the eastern province of Xinjiang, a long way from major demand centres, and would require an increase in the capacity of the West East Pipeline system that already carries pipeline gas from Central Asia. None of these challenges are insuperable. So, it is conceivable that at some point in the 2020s, Russia could become China's largest gas supplier, exporting up to 68bn cm/yr."
Russia’s hunger for second eastern gas outlet grows
Petroleum Economist, 15 February 2019

""We are going to need very high-energy density batteries to power new advanced technologies that are incorporated into phones, laptops and especially electric vehicles," said Amin Salehi-Khojin, associate professor of mechanical and industrial engineering in UIC's College of Engineering. Salehi-Khojin and his colleagues synthesized several 2D materials that can serve as catalysts. A number of their 2D materials, when incorporated into experimental lithium-air batteries as the catalyst, enabled the battery to hold up to 10 times more energy than lithium-air batteries containing traditional catalysts. Their findings are published in the journal Advanced Materials. "Currently, electric vehicles average about 100 miles per charge, but with the incorporation of 2D catalysts into lithium-air batteries, we could provide closer to 400 to 500 miles per charge, which would be a real game-changer," said Salehi-Khojin, who is also the corresponding author of the paper. "This would be a huge breakthrough in energy storage." Salehi-Khojin and his colleagues synthesized 15 different types of 2D transition metal dichalcogenides or TMDCs. TMDCs are unique compounds because they have high electronic conductivity and fast electron transfer that can be used to participate in reactions with other materials, such as the reactions that take place inside batteries during charging and discharging."
2D materials may enable electric vehicles to get 500 miles on a single charge
ScienceDaily, 10 January 2019

"America’s journey to preeminence in the global oil trade is about to hit another milestone. Propelled by the shale-oil boom, the U.S. is already producing more crude than either Russia or Saudi Arabia, who until recently vied for the top spot. By mid-year America will go one better. At the moment, Saudi Arabia could raise production all the way up to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day, surpassing the 11.8 million daily barrels produced by the U.S. in December, according to the International Energy Agency. Soon even that won’t be enough. American crude output is poised to expand by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, according to the IEA, which sees the U.S. exceeding the Saudis’ maximum level within the next six months. “By the middle of the year, U.S. crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia,” the Paris-based agency said in a report on Friday."
U.S. Could Soon Pump More Crude Than Saudis Can at Their Peak
Bloomberg, 18 January 2019

"The UK’s nuclear power capabilities are slowly disappearing. Right now, the country gets about 20 per cent of its power from nuclear – it’s second only to gas as a source of electricity. But by the early 2030s, only one of the seven existing nuclear power stations in the UK is still planned to be in operation, and attempts to build replacements continue to falter. On Thursday, Japanese giant Hitachi pulled the plug on the £16 billion Wylfa Newydd nuclear plant on Anglesey in Wales, as well as another planned project at Oldbury in Gloucestershire. It is the latest in a string of blows to the UK’s nuclear new build programme. In November last year, Toshiba pulled out of the Moorside project in Cumbria – between them, the three scrapped power stations would have met 15 per cent of the UK’s future electricity demands."
Only renewables can fix the UK's nuclear energy crisis
The Week, 18 January 2019

"While low oil prices are beginning to slow the growth of U.S. shale, in the years ahead oil and gas drilling could be curtailed by a different problem: a shortage of water. Water is a crucial ingredient in the fracking process, and drillers use copious volumes of it. The problem for the U.S. oil industry is that so much of the output growth expected over the next half-decade or so depends very heavily on the Permian basin, where water is increasingly scarce. Water already accounts for about 15 percent of the cost of a shale well, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. “In the Permian, total spending on water is expected to double over the next 5 years, to $22B, with E&Ps on avg using 50 barrels (bbls) of water for each lateral foot completed,” the investment bank wrote in a new report. “Assuming 10k lateral feet per well, this implies that the ~5,500 existing Permian well permits will require ~2.75 billion bbls of water to complete.” That’s a lot of water in an area that doesn’t have a lot of it. “Given the sizeable water need, we believe drought and water scarcity present long-term risks to shale economics, particularly in the Permian, a core area of growth in a drought-prone region,” Morgan Stanley warned. Morgan Stanley goes on to provide further detail into the scale of the problem. Morgan Stanley overlaid water scarcity data from the World Resources Institute with Permian well locations, finding that “53% of Permian wells being drilled today are located in areas with high water risk,” the investment bank concluded. “While operators are comfortable with water availability at the moment, there are precedents (most recently in 2011/2012 in Oklahoma) where severe drought conditions materially affected completion performance.” There is also another separate water problem facing shale drillers. “Produced water” – water that comes out of a well when drilled – must be handled somehow. The volume of produced water that comes out of a shale well can exceed that of oil by a ratio of 10 to 1. The ratio also increases over time as the oil from individual wells begins to deplete, so the cost-per-barrel for water disposal also rises. Water can be injected underground into disposal wells, which carries environmental and seismic risk. Or it is trucked away for recycling or some other form of disposal, often done by third parties, at huge expense. Last year, Wood Mackenzie said that the rising cost of water disposal alone would increase the breakeven price in the Permian by between $3 and $6 per barrel, potentially shaving off future Permian oil production by around 400,000 bpd by 2025.Morgan Stanley notes that shale drillers are increasingly recycling the water they use to drill wells, injecting it back underground to be used again in the next well. That saves on water use, of course, but it also cuts down on the cost of water disposal. The investment bank says simply recycling water could save around $1 per barrel."
Low Oil Prices Are Not The Only Problem For The Permian
OilPrice.com, 17 January 2019

"Hitachi has said it will suspend work on a multi-billion-pound UK nuclear project because of rising costs. The decision puts thousands of jobs at risk if the £13bn plant at Wylfa Newydd in Anglesey, north Wales, is scrapped. The Japanese firm had been in talks with the UK government since June about funding for the project, which was being built by its Horizon subsidiary. The government said it had failed to agree terms with Hitachi. The nuclear industry said it was "disappointing". Hitachi said it would also suspend work on another site, in Oldbury in Gloucestershire, "until a solution can be found". About 9,000 workers had been expected to be involved in building the two nuclear reactors, which were due to be operational by the mid-2020s.... Hinkley, Moorside, Wylfa, Oldbury, Bradwell and Sizewell were identified as the sites for the most significant national wave of new nuclear power construction anywhere in the world. Of those six - only one is under construction, three have been abandoned and two face an uphill battle to get the green light. Under those circumstances you might think the government would be embarrassed that its energy policy was in disarray. But it's not. The collapse of the Wylfa and Oldbury projects today (following the abandonment of Moorside) is evidence of some new economic realities that have seen government enthusiasm for new nuclear fade. The first and most obvious is the cost .... The Nuclear Industry Association says the UK has six sites that are licensed to build new nuclear power stations and eight sites that are currently generating power. However, it said that only one of the eight currently operating are due to be in use by 2030. The GMB union warned of an energy crisis."
Nuclear plant in Anglesey suspended by Hitachi
January, 17 January 2019

Oil prices expected to stay anchored around $65-70 through 2023: Kemp
Reuters, 15 January 2019

"TAE Technologies will bring a fusion-reactor technology to commercialization in the next five years, its CEO announced recently at the University of California, Irvine. "The notion that you hear fusion is another 20 years away, 30 years away, 50 years away—it's not true," said Michl Binderbauer, CEO of  the company formerly known as Tri Alpha Energy. "We're talking commercialization coming in the next five years for this technology."... "What we're really going to see in the next couple years is actually the ability to actually make net energy, and that's going to happen in the machine we call Copernicus," he said in a "fireside chat" at UC Irvine."
Energy From Fusion In 'A Couple Years,' CEO Says, Commercialization In Five
Forbes, 14 January 2019

"Who could blame the board of the Japanese company Hitachi if its members decide at their meeting this week to scrap plans for a new nuclear power station at Wylfa on the North Wales island of Anglesey? Hitachi has invested more than £840m in the project over the past six years. The technology has passed all the tests set by the UK’s nuclear regulator. But the company has been unable to get the government to put in place the clear and credible financial structure necessary to underpin the investment. That failure has already led other investors to abandon the new plant planned at Moorside in Cumbria....Hitachi’s withdrawal would mark the collapse of the energy policy adopted in 2013 by the UK’s coalition government. Facing what were believed to be ever-rising energy prices and the need to reduce carbon emissions, the policy plumped for new nuclear, promising that 35 gigawatts of new capacity would be on stream by the mid 2030s — more than replacing the first generation of nuclear plants, which would by then have reached the end of their useful lives. Because the price of gas seemed doomed to keep rising, new nuclear would come to look highly competitive over time as well as reducing dependence on imports.  Since then much has changed, and the assumptions which underpinned the old policy now look laughably wrong. The costs of all forms of energy (apart from nuclear) have fallen dramatically and there is no shortage of supply. Electricity demand is down thanks to efficiency gains and new technology. The contract for the first new nuclear station being built at Hinkley Point in Somerset, which enjoys a guaranteed index-linked price for 35 years from the moment the plant is commissioned, looks exorbitant. The indexation dates from 2013. If the plant comes on stream in 2027 as promised, power from Hinkley will cost well over £100 per megawatt-hour. At the same time the cost of renewables has fallen radically, to the point where subsidies are largely unnecessary. As the latest capacity auctions demonstrate, it is beginning to be possible to rely on some measure of storage to manage the peaks and troughs of demand.  The demise of Wylfa forces the need for a comprehensive review of energy policy. Since the UK government is too busy preparing for Brexit to focus seriously on any other issue, the review should be conducted independently. The questions are simple: how much energy is likely to be needed? What are the most cost effective ways of reducing emissions? What alternative competitive sources of supply are now available, and what research priorities can improve efficiency and advance the next generation of supplies? Then, crucially, what incentives or guarantees are necessary to secure the required investment? "
After Wylfa — the case for an independent review of UK energy policy
Financial Times, 13 January 2019