United States Director Of National Intelligence
On New Era Of Resource Wars
"The world faces a growing risk of conflict
over the next 20 to 30 years amid an unprecedented transfer of wealth and power from West
to East, the US intelligence chief has said. Michael McConnell, the director
of national intelligence, predicted rising demand for scarce supplies of food and fuel.... in a speech Thursday to intelligence professionals in Nashville,
Tennessee. 'During the period of this assessment, out to 2025, the probability for conflict between nations
and within nation-state entities will be greater,' he said..... The economy will be in the midst of a transition from oil
by 2025 but moving in the direction of natural
gas and coal, according to McConnell. New
technologies and innovations could provide solutions but existing technologies 'are
inadequate for replacing the traditional energy architecture on the large scale in which
it's needed,' he said."
World faces growing risk of conflict: US intelligence chief
Agence
France Presse, 31 October 2008
"The global economy is tanking, U.S. forces remain tied up in Iraq, Afghanistan is on a downward spiral -- one might wonder why anyone would want to be U.S. president during these trying times. Recently, the nation's chief intelligence officer weighed in, painting an even more somber picture of a far more complicated world. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell looked beyond the immediate future, focusing on what his analysts are telling him about the challenges the world community is likely to face by 2025. It isn't pretty. Speaking to an annual conference of intelligence officials and contractors, McConnell said demographics, competition for natural resources and climate change will increase the potential for conflict. President-elect Barack Obama may get a glimpse of some of those challenges on Thursday. McConnell is expected to lead Obama's first top-secret intelligence briefing, according to U.S. officials familiar with the process. According to McConnell's outlook, economic and population growth will strain resources.
'Demand is projected to outstrip the easily available supplies over the next decade,' he said at the annual conference. The intelligence community's forecast indicates oil and gas supplies will continue to dwindle and production will be concentrated in unstable areas, he said. And there appears to be no relief at hand. McConnell said studies have shown that new energy technologies -- such as biofuels, clean coal and hydrogen -- generally take 25 years to become commercially viable and widespread.""Let me
finish my remarks by just forecasting a bit for the future. When we sat down to do this
with some of our best and brightest on the inside, we made it a global enterprise. We
invested time with academics, diplomats, and other governmental leaders around the globe
to get their input and their observations. And this report will be released in a week or
so. I would commend it to you. It will be on the web and it will be
published in hard copy. By and large, it says that the
potential for conflict over the next 15 to 20 years is going up not down. That’s
because of the competition for resources.... Production of oil in most of the countries that produce oil
is currently on the decline. We will see a shift away from oil. But most likely, what we will see a
shift to is coal and natural gas, unless there is a
technological breakthrough that we don’t know about currently. So the pressure across the globe is
going to change in the context of competition for natural resources. We’re going to see not only government groups compete for –
governments compete for resources – we’re going to see nongovernmental
organizations, businesses, and terrorist groups also have something to say about it."
Remarks by the US Director of National Intelligence Mr. Mike
McConnell
2008 MILCOM Conference & Symposium
San Diego Convention Center San
Diego, California, November 17, 2008
Remarks and Q&A by the [US] Director of National
Intelligence, Mr. Mike McConnell
|
"Now, what I’m going to share with you this morning – I have actually some prepared remarks I want to share with you, and I have to be very careful. I’m a little worried about what theheadline might say tomorrow – DNI says. But I want to share some things with you and we’ll talk about the [intelligence] community, some changes, and some challenges....
Now, this community – a little different focus from what you heard before – this community was created in the 1947 National Security Act.... Today we are 16 agencies, and we are organized across six different departments.....
Now, here’s probably the biggest challenge that this community faces: We do our work in secret and we cannot defend in public.....
Now, the three topics that I want to discuss with you this morning are the rise of a more globalized, more multi-polar system for the entire world, the changing dynamics of population demographics, competition for natural resources, and predictions for climate change. And then thirdly, the increasing potential for conflict over the next 20 to 30 years. The first observation is that the international system we have known since the mid-’40s, the one we all grew up with, is being fundamentally transformed, is being transformed by the rise of emerging powers, an increasingly globalized – means shrinking globe – and the historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East. Let me repeat that last part just for emphasis: the transfer for economic power and wealth from West to East, something that we haven’t experienced in our lifetimes, not in your parents’ lifetimes, or even your grandparents’ lifetimes. In addition to economic and demographic shifts, this transformation is being accelerated by the current global financial crisis. Already there are calls to establish a new economic framework to replace the one that was set up in 1944.... Many today are already claiming that Bretton Woods tilted the playing field in favor of America, and that the rest of the world has not enjoyed equal opportunity, therefore the claims for change. By 2025, if not before, our Intelligence Community futurists believe there will be a global multipolar international system with emphasis on the multi-polar part.......the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks and many, many challenges. Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources, investments and technological innovation....
A 19th-century-like scenario of territorial expansion or military rivalries like that era we’re not predicting as likely but that also cannot be ruled out in the timeframe of which I’m speaking 20 to 30 years. In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power, now underway, as noted from West to East is without precedent in modern history. The shift derives from two sources. First the dramatic increases in the last few years in oil and commodity prices that have generated windfall profits for the Gulf states and for Russia. It remains to be seen what the impact of the most recent price changes over the last few weeks will mean for the long term. Secondly, the lower cost combined with government policies have shifted the locus of manufacturing and even some service industries to Asia and to some extent to South America. Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, China, and India, the so-called BRIC countries, indicate that they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global domestic product by 2040. China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country. If the current trends persist, by 2025, China will have the world’s second-largest economy and be in route to becoming the world’s largest economy. China will also start becoming a major military power by 2025. In addition, China will likely be the world’s largest importer of natural resources and the largest contributor to pollution of the entire globe. Despite inflationary pressures, we believe India will continue to enjoy rapid economic growth and they will do that in route to becoming either the third- or the second-largest economy in the future....
Russia, a country we have all focused on at one time or another, has the potential to be richer, more powerful, and more self-assured in 2025. However, to do so, Russia must invest in human capital, expand and diversify its economy, and integrate with global markets. It could boast a gross domestic product approaching that of the United Kingdom or France during the timeframe of my comments – 2025, but to do so, they would have to become more integrated in the global economy, open up to the outside world, address their demographic trends, which are very negative, address the health issues and the lack of capital investment. If Russia fails to do that, it will condemn them to a lesser status with nuclear weapons, a loud voice, but overall less relevance....
A second topic I’ll touch on is the changing dynamics of population demographics and the natural competition for resources and climate change. Both economic and population growth will put increasing pressure on a number of highly strategic resources. These include not only energy but also basic food and of course water. Demand is projected to outstrip the easily available supplies over the next decade. Oil and gas production of many traditional energy producers is already declining. Countries capable of significantly expanding production will see oil supplies dwindle and oil and gas production will be concentrated in unstable areas. Given the decline in petroleum production, the primary ingredient that fueled growth in the last century, the world will be in the midst of a fundamental economic transition away from oil, but surprisingly toward natural gas and coal unless technology moves us in a different direction.....
New technologies and innovations could again provide solutions such as viable alternatives to fossil fuels or means to overcome food and water constraints; however, all current technologies are inadequate for replacing the traditional energy architecture on the large scale in which it’s needed. New energy technologies probably will not be commercially viable and wide spread by 2025; therefore, the pace of technology innovation will be key, but even with favorable policy and the right kind of funding and the ability to have clean fuels, biofuels, clean coal or hydrogen, the transition to these new fuels will be slow. Most technologies historically have had an adoption lag. We looked at a recent study to just get a feel for this. It takes an average of 25years for a new technology – for energy new technology to become widely adopted. Where does this leave us? What am I predicting for the future? What I’m suggesting – there’s an increased potential for conflict. During the period of this assessment, out to 2025, the probability for conflict between nations and within nation-state entities will be greater. Given the confluence of factors from a new global international system, increasing tension over natural resources, weapons proliferation, things of this nature, we predict an increased likelihood for conflict. Now, I know there is a journalist or two here in the audience. And I am asking you – and I hope I don’t read tomorrow morning the United States DNI predicts mass casualty conflicts in our future….
Perceptions of energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to these energy supplies. And the worst case, this could result in conflicts between states or even inside states. If government leaders deem assured access to energy resources is essentially for maintaining their domestic stability and in some cases, even survival of their regime, they will likely initiate the necessary conflict. Even actions short of war will have potential important geopolitical consequences. Maritime-security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and for modernization efforts, such as China and India development of blue-water capabilities. Maritime-security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and for modernization efforts, such as China and India development of blue-water capabilities. The buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tension, rivalries and counterbalancing moves. Conversely on the positive side, if they did this in partnership with other nations, it could make our seaways safer and more secure...." |
"Now, the
three topics that I want to discuss with you this morning are the rise of a more
globalized, more multi-polar system for the entire world, the changing dynamics of
population demographics, competition for natural
resources, and predictions for climate
change....Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources,
investments and technological innovation....In terms of size, speed, and directional flow,
the transfer of global wealth and economic power, now underway, as noted from West to East
is without precedent in modern history. The shift derives from two sources. First the dramatic increases in the last few years in oil and commodity
prices that have generated windfall profits for the Gulf states and for Russia. It remains to be seen what the impact of the most recent price changes
over the last few weeks will mean for the long term. Secondly, the lower cost combined
with government policies have shifted the locus of manufacturing and even some service
industries to Asia and to some extent to South America. Growth projections for Brazil,
Russia, China, and India, the so-called BRIC countries, indicate that they will
collectively match the original G-7’s share of global domestic product by 2040. China
is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country.
If the current trends persist, by 2025, China will have the world’s second-largest
economy and be in route to becoming the world’s largest economy. China will also
start becoming a major military power by 2025. In addition, China will likely be the world’s largest importer of natural
resources and the largest contributor to pollution
of the entire globe....A second topic I’ll touch on is the changing dynamics of
population demographics and the natural competition
for resources and climate change. Both economic and
population growth will put increasing pressure on a number of highly strategic resources.
These include not only energy but also basic food and of course water. Demand is projected to outstrip
the easily available supplies over the next decade. Oil
and gas production of many traditional energy producers is already declining. Countries
capable of significantly expanding production will see oil supplies dwindle and oil and
gas production will be concentrated in unstable areas. Given the decline in petroleum
production, the primary ingredient that fueled growth in the last century, the world will
be in the midst of a fundamental economic transition away from oil, but surprisingly
toward natural gas and coal unless technology moves us in a different direction.....New technologies and innovations could again provide solutions such
as viable alternatives to fossil fuels or means to overcome food and water constraints;
however, all current technologies are inadequate for
replacing the traditional energy architecture on the large scale in which it’s
needed. New energy technologies probably will not be commercially viable and wide spread
by 2025; therefore, the pace of technology innovation will be key, but even with favorable
policy and the right kind of funding and the ability to have clean fuels, biofuels, clean
coal or hydrogen, the transition to these new fuels will be slow. Most technologies historically have had an adoption lag. We looked at a
recent study to just get a feel for this. It takes an
average of 25years for a new technology – for energy new technology to become widely
adopted. Where does this leave us? What am I predicting for the future? What I’m
suggesting – there’s an increased potential for conflict....Perceptions of
energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to
these energy supplies. And the worst case, this could result in conflicts between states
or even inside states. If government leaders deem assured access to energy resources is
essentially for maintaining their domestic stability and in some cases, even survival of
their regime, they will likely initiate the necessary conflict. Even actions short of war
will have potential important geopolitical consequences."
Remarks and Q&A by the [US] Director of National Intelligence, Mr. Mike
McConnell
The United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation (USGIF), GEOINT 2008 Symposium
Gaylord Opryland Resort &
Convention Center, Nashville, Tennessee - October 30, 2008
NLPWESSEX,
natural law publishing |